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Digging Deeper – Mariano’s Injury

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment
Rivera gets carried off the field after tearing his ACL in Kansas City May 3rd

Despite Rafael Soriano’s strong performance so far in 2012, Mariano Rivera’s absence has hurt the Yankees in more ways than the surface conveys.

This year, Soriano has thrown to a 2.10 ERA and has beautifully patched up Rivera’s absence. His 42 saves through 152 games have already surpassed Rivera’s average of 40 over the last three seasons. Soriano has blown four saves in 2012, identical to Rivera’s annual average over those same three years.

On May 3rd, Rivera tried to track down a Jayson Nix fly ball during batting practice in Kansas City, but tore his ACL near the warning track at Kauffman Stadium, ending his season and wreaking havoc in New York.

Enter Rafael Soriano – Rays closer from two years ago. Instead of Yankees management pushing 2011’s eighth-inning man David Robertson one inning up the totem pole, Joe Girardi pops Soriano from the seventh inning to the ninth.

As a side note, I thought it was the correct move at the time. From 2009-11, both Soriano and Rivera struck out just over a batter per nine innings, both sported an above average K/BB ratio, and while Rivera’s ERA was better, Soriano’s experience translated into the closer role better than the talented, but young Robertson.

But to say the Yankees have not been hurt by Rivera’s absence is wrong.

This year, the Yankees have thrown to a 3.32 ERA in the seventh inning (source here). By filling Rivera’s gap, Soriano simply borrows from Peter to pay Paul. The seventh inning role is left unfilled by a solid, trustworthy arm and is instead patched together with a hopeful concoction of unproven or young arms (Clay Rapada, David Phelps, Boone Logan, Cody Eppely, etc.)

NUMBER CRUNCHING: Soriano has pitched in 66 games this year. For argument’s sake, let’s say all those games came in “close” ballgames in the seventh inning, the inning he would pitch if Rivera were healthy.

Ignoring the fallacy of the predetermined outcome, let’s say Mariano is himself and Soriano still throws to a 2.10 ERA, allowing all 15 earned runs in the seventh inning. Taking the 3.32 ERA of Yankees seventh-inning pitching in 2012, opponents would score about nine less runs than if Mariano was healthy.

While this ignores many variables and requires multiple assumptions, you can’t ignore the big picture: The Yankees would average more wins, and have a greater chance to win the World Series, if Mariano Rivera was healthy, despite Soriano’s excellent season.

To look at it from a different angle, Rivera has averaged about three wins after replacement over the last three years according to baseball-reference.com. Say average seventh-inning pitchers are replacing Soriano, the Yankees would have a four-game lead over Baltimore with 10 games to play, not one.

In the first year with added emphasis on a division title, a four game lead would allow Girardi to relax and set up his pitching rotation for a likely ALDS appearance.

The game has changed over time. One hundred years ago, starters threw complete games every outing and the bullpen was reserved for starting pitchers that just weren’t good enough.

Slowly, a closer was in demand, then an eighth inning reliever, and in today’s game, a seventh-inning pitcher.

Since 2004, no pitcher has thrown over 255 innings in one season. In 1993, six hurled more than 255 innings. In 1963, six pitchers threw at least 275 innings, three over 300.

For the cherry on top, Will White threw 680 innings in 1879, and all 75 of his starts were complete games.

(For this reason I think Cy Young’s record of 511 wins is the most unbreakable record in sports, but that’s for another day.)

Since 2008, starting pitchers average a tad under six innings per start (141,878.1 innings pitched in 24,010 MLB starts since 2008 averages to 5.92 innings per start), so for a championship team, a seventh-inning man is vital.

With Rivera back in 2013, the Yankees have the best back end of the bullpen on paper. For a perennial offensive juggernaut, a trio of Soriano, Robertson, and Rivera will give the Yankees’ starters the confidence to relax and focus on just six strong innings, while the offense knows a late deficit is always within reach.

As for this season, are the Yankees a championship team without Mariano Rivera? No, but they are capable of winning the World Series. There’s a difference.

Can New York City Own All Four Championships in 2012?

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

Probably not, but they have a solid chance to own 75% of them.

No United States city has won a championship in all four major sports in even the same decade. Granted, this is a tough task because only 12 cities house all four major sports. Can you name them?

– Oakland in the 1970s – the Raiders, Athletics, and Warriors won championships but the Golden Seals did not.
– Los Angeles in the 1980s – the Raiders, Dodgers, and Lakers won championships but the Kings did not.
– New York in the 1990s – the Rangers, Yankees, and Giants won championships but the Knicks did not.
– Boston in the 2000s – the Patriots, Red Sox, and Celtics won championships but the Bruins did not.

Boston nearly owned all four championships in a 365 day period from 2007-08. The Red Sox won in October 2007 and the Celtics in June 2008, but the Patriots were denied a perfect season by the New York Giants and the Bruins lost in the first round of the 2008 playoffs. Boston did walk away with a hockey championship in ’08 however – Boston College won the National Championship.

The New York Giants won 2012’s Super Bowl after dropping to 7-7 following a horrid loss to the Washington Redskins. Las Vegas odds said the Giants were 100:1 to win the Super Bowl after that loss according to my father. The Knicks are currently 25:1, but more on them later.

The Yankees always have a chance – just like Boston, Philly, or any team coached by Mike Scioscia, I’ll put the Yankees’ odds at 8:1. I strongly believe the Yankees will be one of the final eight playoff teams, so from there it’s anybody’s call.

Let’s say the Yankees stay healthy, click, and get a little bit of luck. They certainly can win the World Series.

The New York Rangers shocked the hockey world this season and established themselves as the best team in the east, arguably in the NHL. Vegas odds has them at 11:2.

8:1 x 11:2 = 44:1 odds (2.3%) New York owns at least three championships in 2012, which includes the Super Bowl Champion Giants.

The Knicks have been New York’s weakest link for the last ten years, but this year they almost have a chance to win it all. Unlike football, basketball is a seven game series and is arguably the most predictable of the four major sports. For the record, I don’t see them beating Chicago or Miami, but remember – the eighth seeded Knicks beat the first-seeded Heat in the first round in 1999. Advantage ’99 Knicks though because they beat the Heat in a then-best of five series.

Passing and playing aggressive defense has given me this slim glimmer of hope with a lot of luck the Knicks can go for a title. Mike Woodson coaches a winning system that emphasizes rebounding and defense rather than D’Antoni’s double shot of offense.

Carmelo Anthony needs to score and Amar’e Stoudemire needs to buy in to Mike Woodson’s system.

Carmelo vs. Durant in game six at The Garden? Nah probably not, but if the Rangers play like they have all year and the Yankees find a way to take home #28 in November, New York will breed a surplus of haters by the Mayan Apocalypse.

…the more the merrier.

Andrew Bynum is Not a Winner

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

The Lakers are a better team without Andrew Bynum. Their career 1-8 three-point shooting center has a lot of growing up to do.

With 16 seconds left on the shot clock in Tuesday’s game against the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers’ Andrew Bynum launched a three pointer from the top of the key. He missed by a mile and was benched about a minute later. (I think he would’ve been benched even if he made the shot.)

But making the blatantly poor decision did not bother me as much as his attitude following it. Listen to Bynum’s body language in Tuesday’s post-game interview:

Subjectively, he sounds nonchalant and conveys a care-free persona.

Objectively, Bynum’s response at the 1:06 mark troubles me. “Why did you shoot the three?”

“I made one last night and wanted to take another one.”

“I” wanted to take another one, so “I” did. Bynum indirectly admitted he is a selfish player at times (at best). Bynum knows he belongs nowhere near that three point line, yet consciously chucked it up anyway.

It shows immaturity and an individualistic mindset. It shows Andrew Bynum’s attitude is detrimental to the Lakers’ locker room. Unfortunately, I believe his decision to shoot the three was a way of saying, “Yanno coach…I really don’t care what you think.”

**In my opinion, the Kobe and the Lakers are fed up with head coach Mike Brown. In his defense, replacing arguably the greatest coach in basketball history plus inheriting a veteran franchise is not an easy task.

Still, Brown will catch a lot of heat. Bynum’s interview begs the question, “Coach, do you have control of the locker room (let alone Andrew Bynum)?” Mike D’Antoni didn’t.

Do Bynum’s seven-foot frame and above average basketball skills eclipse the negative baggage his attitude elicits? Yes, the Lakers won two championships with him, but as he gains seniority, will Bynum’s pro/con baggage tilt in the opposite direction? I think within a year or two it will. What is his “negative attitude ceiling?” It doesn’t help he can’t stay healthy.

The Lakers’ biggest win would have been to trade Bynum in a package deal for Orlando’s Dwight Howard, but that’s a rant for another day.

“Intangibles” is the most underrated stat in sports. We drown ourselves in numbers, but give me a stat for locker room presence. Does this individual catalyze or retard the team’s progress?

It’s the one stat the sports world is missing, but at least now I know where Bynum ranges in the category.

Peyton Manning was John Elway’s Ultimate Exit Plan

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

John Elway is the happiest person in the United States right now – not because of who he acquired, but the backlash he avoided.

Getting Peyton Manning was Broncos’ executive John Elway’s pubic relations dream.

Elway’s resistance to guaranteeing Tim Tebow job security beyond season’s end, despite his win total, shows Elway has no confidence in his tight end – err – quarterback.

But without Manning, Elway was caught in a serious PR catch 22. Let’s break it down by scenario before Manning agreed to negotiate:

Tebow starts, does poorly
Tebow’s stocky build and slow delivery are tangible flaws, and the fan base would argue the red flags are an inexcusable oversight for a co-owner who knows how to win Super Bowls.

Tebow starts, keeps winning
Until Tebow proves he can throw the ball, it doesn’t matter how well he does. Winning would suppress the Broncos quarterback debate, not squash it.

Tebow relegated to the bench, <insert quarterback here> does well
Does this new quarterback win at a rate better than Tebow’s 7-4 record? Can he prove he can throw the ball? If Elway’s new quarterback could keep this pace for a full season, it would be the co-owner’s best case PR scenario.

Tebow relegated to the bench, <insert quarterback here> does poorly.
This would be Elway’s worst case PR scenario. If you’re going to bench a quarterback that wins, you had better be right – which is why I think Tebow would have started the season as Broncos quarterback. It would have made the most PR sense, which unfortunately shows how the media has literally affected sports.

Peyton Manning’s presence takes an enormous weight off Elway’s shoulders. Even if Peyton Manning starts the season 0-4, Elway remains off the hook – it’s what any owner would have done. An 0-4 start with any quarterback other than Peyton Manning would unfairly put the Broncos owner in hot water.

Think of Peyton Manning as #2 Duke. No one will attack you for not picking Lehigh to advance to the round of 32.

Now the Broncos just need to find some wide receivers…

The Yankees Should Go Completely Unconventional

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

Welcome back Andy. New York loves you, and I would love to see you win with us…but you put us in a tough spot. We already have enough quality starters to fill a five-man rotation. Simply put, your presence makes things very difficult.

However, your signing opens the door to an unconventional strategy no American baseball team has used before:

Use a six-man rotation.

Here is a list of the Yankees’ potential starters listed by, in my opinion, likeliness to make the rotation. Let me know if you disagree:

CC Sabathia
Ivan Nova
Michael Pineda
Hiroki Kuroda
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Freddy Garcia

Traditionally, Major League clubs use five starting pitchers, meaning two of the aforementioned will be relegated to long-reliever (most team’s first pitcher cut) or the minor leagues.

Here’s why a six-man rotation would benefit the Yankees:

1) Extra Rest

With such emphasis on pitch count and pitcher conditioning, you give all starters an extra day off, thus decreasing the chance of injury. You can argue the extra day off leads to an increased chance of stiffness and muscle tears, but pitchers can always add an extra throw day to their workout.

2) Playoffs

You have more options when assembling a potential playoff rotation. The extra man also increases competition between hurlers, which may be what the Yankees need to put them over the hump come late in the season.

Also, Joe Girardi can certainly feel better about using a starter on three-days rest in the postseason because of the decreased innings pitched in the regular season. Again, this would conflict with pitchers’ routines, and going from six-days rest to three-days rest is a lot to ask. However, I still feel the greater positive lies in a six-man rotation. Professional pitchers can adjust.

3) Pitcher Confidence

You don’t have to relegate (most likely) Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia to long reliever roles, assuming they even make the team. A six-man rotation would avoid another hit to Phil Hughes’ dwindling confidence, who I believe would be the final starter in a six-man army.

This concept is not uncharted territory for the Bombers – the Yankees experimented with a six-man rotation toward the end of last year. A six-man rotation is the Japanese standard, so the Yankees can use those teams as a model. Potential starter Hiroki Kuroda pitched in Japan from 1997-2007. I couldn’t find validation online, but if the Hiroshima Toyo Carp used six starters during those years, it would bring Kuroda back to his roots.

Here’s where Yankees pitchers stand with two weeks left in spring training:

CC Sabathia – Ace of the staff, huge contract. He has a spot.

Ivan Nova – His 16-4 record was the best among Yankees pitchers in 2011. Is he the Yankees’ next ace? Until he shows he’s not… three left.

Michael Pineda – You can argue the Yankees can play the seniority card and have Pineda start in the minors, but that wouldn’t go over well with the fan base. Assuming he doesn’t blow up in the last weeks of spring training, he’ll have a spot in the rotation.

Hiroki Kuroda – I’m wondering if the Yankees are wishing they hadn’t signed Kuroda now that Pettitte is returning. Personally, I wasn’t crazy over the signing to begin with. He’ll be 37, he’s coming to the offensively-driven American League, and gave up 24 home runs last year – only eight to LCF or RCF according to Baseball-Reference. Important because Yankee Stadium is more concave than Dodger Stadium (Yankee Stadium vs. Dodger Stadium), and plays even smaller than its dimensions indicate. I still think he’ll make the rotation.

Andy Pettitte – He’ll make the rotation. The Yankees would not sign their good friend to embarrass him with a trip to the minors. He may start there to get his confidence and strength back, but he’ll be in the rotation by May 1st.

Phil Hughes – Hughes has been a bit of a bust since his highly anticipated debut April 2007. He’s shown flares of greatness, but has been hurt often, and has yet proven he can be more than a fourth or fifth starter. If Hughes doesn’t make the rotation, the Yankees may put him back in the bullpen, a role he thrived in 2009. Hey Diamondbacks, how about Phil Hughes for Ian Kennedy, straight up?

Freddy Garcia – Garcia seems to hold the shortest stick. He’s old, has no sentimental value to the organization, and was nothing short of ghastly down the stretch. He re-signed in December to a one-year deal, but the Yankees won’t be afraid to eat the contract if need be. I see Garcia as an long reliever/emergency starter come opening day no matter which way you form the rotation.

Dear Mr. Girardi,

I have no problem with a six-man rotation. I’m old, and along with Kuroda and Sabathia, extra rest would certainly help. I’m not crazy about something that goes against my career routine, but I’ll get over it. I know I’ll make the team, but it’ll be nice knowing I’m not destroying Phil Hughes’ confidence by doing so.

Thanks for taking me back. I’m sorry for throwing a total monkey wrench into your system.

Your former teammate and current fifth starter,
Andy Pettitte

NCAA Tournament to Expand to 4,096 Teams

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

The 68-team NCAA tournament structure lasted only one year. Next year the NCAA tournament will include 4,096 teams.

This video on the Onion Sports Network is one of my all time favorite sports videos.

Later today (or early tomorrow) I’ll be arguing how the Yankees would benefit taking an unconventional route this season – why not have a six-man rotation?

Top 10 NBA Player Commercials

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

I found this great list on Buzzfeed.com of the top 10 commercials featuring NBA players.

Personally, I think they missed this one below. It was the NBA’s opening promo to the 2011-12 NBA season on Christmas Day. How long did this take to edit?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37bszM1f6xc

LeBron…This is Why You Will Never Be Michael Jordan

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

LeBron James is the most athletic, talented, and arguably strongest pound-for-pound player in the league today. He has the gall to take, and hit, circus-clutch shots like this (skip to 2:54)…and this (skip to :45), yet under 24 seconds in the final period, he’s a consistent no-show.

LeBron James is the “The fans’ pressure greatly affects me” poster-child. And we  love it. We fans know we have the collective ability to greatly affect arguably the most powerful character in the NBA.

That’s why it’s so much fun to hate LeBron James – because it works.

*For the record, I do feel bad for LeBron. All he wants is to be loved… it’s just not working out for him.

Dear LeBron,
Here’s a list of your PR moves that made me cringe:

7/8/10 – The Decision, & “I’m going to take my talents to South Beach”
How you interpret this: I’m benefiting a charity. This is a great PR move.
How the fans do: “My talents?!” ugh…and yes LeBron, you are the center of attention. I know that’s what you want. Thanks for making yourself bigger than the game.

11/30/11 – Tossing out free T-shirts at an Ohio St. basketball game
How you interpret this: I still love you guys. I’ll never forget where I came from!
How the fans do: It’s like Benedict Arnold giving out free burgers & dogs on Independence Day.

10/11/11 – Tweeting to ESPN’s John Clayton asking when NFL teams can sign free agents.
How you interpret this: The NBA is locked out, but I’m a football fan like the rest of ya!
How the fans do: Why are you worrying about football?! Don’t you care the NBA canceled the first two weeks of the season yesterday?

2/17/12 – Announcing you wouldn’t rule out going back to Cleveland
How you interpret this: I was loved in Cleveland, maybe THAT’S my key to being loved again.
How we do: LeBron… ugh just don’t say anything.

The interesting theme here is (I feel) LeBron truly thinks these aforementioned slip-ups would result in a more positive public image. However, LeBron has dug himself a PR hole so deep he can’t escape with a few pseudo-events or actions. To improve his image, he must at least play a major role in a Heat championship, and multiple times – a feat immensely difficult. I’ll talk about this more later.

And why, LeBron, do you make your twitter handle @KingJames? It comes off as self-centered to the average fan – especially the ones who love hating you.

On a random note, Derek Jeter, Kobe Bryant, Eli Manning, and Albert Pujols don’t really tweet. Do the winners naturally avoid twitter? Do great ones recognize social media as a distraction? A concentration retarder? Let me know in the comments.

Fans try to affect all superstars. The difference is the truly great ones either ignore or thrive off the hate. What happens when Kobe, Reggie, Jeter, Eli, Michael, and any other big time winners get hated on?

Kobe Bryant – He was blacklisted after his sexual assault case in 2003. Today, he’s arguably the closest player to Michael Jordan. Kobe claims he has had not rivals in his career, and I think he’s right.

Reggie Miller – No championships, but if you don’t think there was a direct correlation between pressure and performance, watch ESPN’s documentary Winning Time: Reggie vs. The New York Knicks.

Derek Jeter – Five-time World Series Champion in America’s biggest market. Non-Yankees fans have been trying to hate Jeter for 17 years, yet he continues to show he is unaffected.

Eli Manning – The biggest reason why the Gotham Giants have won their two most recent Super Bowls. Okay, you can argue defense carried them in 2007, but not in 2011.

Michael Jordan – …

LeBron has made some big mistakes in his NBA career – only some aforementioned, but his biggest mistake is one he has yet to overcome – not being himself. He wants to be Michael Jordan so badly. Choosing #23 for the first seven years of his career was LeBron’s inaugural mistake.

It showed weakness. It immediately conveyed he wanted to follow in Michael’s footsteps, not pave his own legacy.

Michael takes the final shot. He didn’t care what you thought. Reggie wanted Knicks fans to hate him – and what happened the last time he played at the Garden? Knicks fans serenaded him with respect – chanting “Reggie! Reggie!” as he left the floor. Barring a crazy steroid scandal or anything unforeseen, Derek Jeter will be cheered in his final game at Fenway Park. I guarantee it.

Fans aren’t dumb. We know who the star players are. Fans judge a player not just by physical ability, but reaction to immense pressure. LeBron has failed to show he can handle the latter.

LeBron, in your best-case-scenario form, here’s how you can become loved again:

1) Fail in Miami. Not on purpose, but if you win even one championship here then leave for Cleveland, it conveys, “Okay, I got one – I’m ready to help you guys now.” Because that’s a slap in the face.

2) Opt Out and Return to Cleveland – Prove to the fans in Cleveland you’ll give up what you went to Miami for – a shortcut to an NBA Title. That will convey, “It doesn’t mean anything if I don’t win it in Cleveland.”

3) Lead Cleveland to an NBA Title

Be The King.

But right now, where’s the killer instinct LeBron? If you don’t have it… that’s okay. Honestly. If you can’t be Michael Jordan it doesn’t mean you’re a bad person nor are you a bad basketball player. If you win in Miami congratulations – that takes hard work. However, you will never be Michael if you win in Miami. You’ll never get back Cleveland’s respect, and you can keep your twitter handle @KingJames because it won’t mean anything.

The King? I have a new one…Dwyane’s Prince.

MLB 2012 – The Year of the Perennial Losers

Corey ScheinerLeave a comment

I can smell the fresh cut grass. I can hear the familiar pop of a crisply throw baseball into a worn-in mitt. I envision the players picking grounders, lackadaisically stretching in the outfield, and taking soft toss batting practice while the hot sun beams down on the field. Few things generate the given euphoria I feel every year when I hear those words.

Baseball is back.

But 2012 is set up to be a strange season. Usually, by the Winter Meetings you have a general idea of what teams will be there come August/September – Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, etc.

Not as much this year.

2012 is capable of housing a severe shake-up in the standings. Perennial losers have worked up their farm systems to achieve at least share of preseason credibility, and some big market teams have a realistic chance to have a down year. Here are some surprise teams to look out for in 2012:

Miami Marlins
New manager, New players, New fan base, New image, New attitude

The “loser” mentality is gone. The new ballpark in Miami will attract more fans and the young players will thrive off the energy of a home crowd – something they could only dream of in Sun Life Stadium.

The Ozzie Guillen move was perfect. His no-BS attitude will halt any ingrained pessimism inherited from playing in front of consistent 8,000 fan crowds. He’ll manage his young players correctly (they’ll hate him, but Guillen will make them winners) and bring some media attention to the team – therefore pulling in the casual fan.

Jose Reyes was a steal. He comes back to a warm-weather climate comparable to his home in the Dominican Republic, his home crowd won’t hate him, and – let’s just face it, he’s not on the Mets. He won’t bat .337 again, but he won’t be a cancer either.

(On a side note, Reyes’ flawed attitude was showcased after his self-dismissal last year to secure the batting title. I would not want him on my team. This deal may be real bad in three years, but this year he’ll be a stud.)

Emilio Bonafacio had a breakout year in 2011. He batted .296, was third on the team in doubles, and can play anywhere on the field. If he can limit his strikeouts (129 in 152 games in 2011) he’ll be a key player.

Mike Stanton is a baller. He’ll be fine this year.

Final Record: 83-79, 3rd in the NL East.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Young talent, Easy division, Unexpected leader

On July 19th, the Pirates were 51-44 and sat atop the NL Central. They have the talent to be good – and they will be. Inexperience is usually the diagnosis of a young team’s late season failures, as was the case in 2011. But what veteran has the possibility to lead the Pirates in 2012?…

A.J. Burnett.

I’ve said it since 2010. The first year out of New York will be a rejuvenation season for Burnett. Didn’t matter what team he played on. He couldn’t handle New York (yes, he did during Game 2 of the 2009 World Series, and it’s the sole reason he leaves NYC on good terms), but in Pittsburgh, there’s no pressure. He’s going to be more relaxed, content, and effective. Look for Burnett to go 15-9 with a 3.30 ERA in 2012.

Andrew McCutchen had a different season in 2011. His home runs were up but his batting average was down. If he can level out yet continue to work those walks, he can set the pace for an offense that struggled mightily last season. They were 14th in the NL in runs scored in 2011.

The top two teams in the NL Central in 2011 will take severe steps back in 2012. The NL Central champion Brewers lost their best player Ryan Braun for 50 games and their second best player Prince Fielder for life. When Braun comes back, who knows what kind of player he’ll be.

*2/24 UPDATE: The Brewers will get off to a better fifty game start now that Braun’s suspension has been reversed. The Pirates will have to overcome Braun’s presence which will be a daunting task.

The World Series Champion Cardinals lost Albert Pujols and their eventual Hall of Fame Manager. Do I think that’s enough to catapult the Pirates past the Cardinals in the standings? Honestly… no, but there’s a chance.

Will this be the season the Pirates finally have a winning season? They haven’t had one in 19 years, a record in the four major sports.

Yes; 83-79 at season’s end.

Kansas City Royals
If Not Now, When?

I have to throw the Royals in here because they will be good. I just don’t know whether this year or in four. The Royals have had the strongest farm system in baseball for some time. The players have had a long time to grow into the game and are now expected to make a splash in the standings.

If Eric Hosmer can be as good as people think he may be, he can set the pace for this young team. Don’t be surprised if the Royals start the season 15-5. Of course they won’t keep that pace up, but they’ll be fun to watch in 2012.

Final Record: 80-82, nine game improvement from 2011 (71-91).

Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasberg, Winning Atmosphere

The Nationals are going to be real good this season. They have some scary talent and a juicy blend of young and seasoned players. Plus, they’ve shown they are committed to winning when they signed Jayson Werth last season.

Strasberg is off Tommy John Surgery, which means he may be throwing even harder than before his injury. Mike Morse will look to work off his stellar 2011 and Jordan Zimmermann is capable of winning 15 games. Zimmermann was 8-11 last season, but with a 3.10 ERA.

Brad Lidge is back to give the Nationals confidence in the ninth, and everyone will go crazy with support for Bryce Harper if he makes his Major League debut in 2012.

If they can score runs and Strasberg has a big campaign, why can’t this team finish 85-77? The NL East is not entirely brutal this season.

I still don’t know if what they have puts them over the hump, so I say their final record is 82-80, but don’t look them over just because they’re the Nationals.

Looking at the opposite end of the Major League spectrum, the Yankees will be good this season, but who knows how the Red Sox will respond after their epic collapse last September? The Phillies proved shutouts don’t mean anything if the offense can’t score, plus they lost Roy Oswalt.

Fantasy owners are going to go crazy in the first two weeks of the season – there’s a lot of unknown talent in this year’s bunch. Many divisions are up for grabs, as well. Either way, baseball is here and never too soon. I have my calendar ready for Opening Night and my mitt literally right next to me.

Play Ball – because baseball is back.

Jeremy Lin is For Real – Because He’s Smart

Corey Scheiner3 Comments


Jeremy Lin is the mortar to Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire’s bricks.

Look at Lin’s obese point total the last four games – 25, 28, 23, 38. He’s shooting 58% from the field, and the Knicks have won all four of those games.

However, his physical game doesn’t impress me as much as mental game. As his shot efficiency indicates, Jeremy Lin makes smart decisions. He plays defense, he takes the open shot, he finds the open teammate, he gets to the free throw line.

Compare those numbers to Carmelo Anthony’s his last four full games:

Points – 25, 26, 26, 11
FG% – 44%
Knicks win/loss – (2-2)

(Yes, those two losses came against Boston and Chicago, but Lin’s dominance against the Lakers allows the juxtaposition.)

In today’s sports world, teams buy this false notion:
The more star players, The more wins, The more Championships

Dear New York Yankees, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, & Philadelphia Eagles,
It doesn’t work like that.

Jeremy Lin is a special player. Midway through the fourth quarter yesterday, Lin hit a long two right in (I think) Pau Gasol’s face, then two possessions later hit an open three from the corner. The crowd was nuts.

The next play is a Jeremy Lin fast break. He goes up strong, and when everyone expects a hard foul and two Lin free throws, he hands it off to Billy Walker for the uncontested layup.

Without any proof, Carmelo Anthony, Toney Douglas, Iman Shumpert, Billy Walker, and almost everyone else on the Knicks (and league for that matter) would go up strong that next play – maybe get the And1, and get the crowd even MORE into it.

But that pass did it for me. It proved will always make the smart play, unaffected by outside forces. With Lin calling the shots, the team will stay focused and won’t get lost in the heat of the moment, which has been a huge hole in the Knicks game since they acquired Anthony.

Fans are obsessed with points, home runs, touchdowns… but not equally important aspects like assists, base hits, and blocking. Even if Lin doesn’t average twenty points per game this season (he won’t), his game translates into winning basketball. It seems to me Lin would be okay with averaging five points and eleven assists per game. Contrarily, point guards like Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury would not, and it’s why they never won an NBA Championship.

Jeremy Lin is not the most athletic player on the Knicks. He doesn’t have the best shot, he’s not the strongest, and he turns the ball over. But sports teams need to learn championships require the perfect mix drink of talent, not five shots of Tequila.

The Jason Kidds, the David Freases, the Derek Jeters. It’s the player that brings something different to the table and doesn’t look for attention. You can argue the Knicks are a better team without their two best players. Right now they are, but Carmelo and Stoudemire will make the Knicks better…

….so long as they play Jeremy Lin’s game.