Bill Belichick’s Poor Time Management Cost the Patriots the Super Bowl

Mario Manningham’s catch was a key turning point in yesterday’s Super Bowl, but not for the obvious reason.

Of all the storylines of yesterday’s game – Manningham’s catch, Wes Welker’s drop, Gronkowski’s absence, why is no one talking about Bill Belichick’s time management decisions late in the fourth quarter?

Why don’t you call a timeout after Bradshaw’s seven yard run on 1st & 10???

This is the most underestimated moment of the Super Bowl, and I can’t figure out why this has garnered zero attention. After Bradshaw’s run on 1st & 10 with 1:45 to go, I smirked when I realized Bill Belichick was not going to call a timeout. The Patriots had two left, and it was 2nd & 3.

What on Earth are you saving those timeouts for? Offense? The Giants are going to run the full 40 seconds off the clock – about 40% of the time you have to work with.

They ran the time off, then scored two plays later. Here’s what Belichick should have said during the timeout he should have called:

“If they get the first down, call our last timeout to stop the clock. We’ll let them score the next play. But when you stop the Giants on this second down play, call a timeout, and we’ll stop them on third down.”

The worst case scenario of either listed above is the Giants get a first down on third down. You let them score the next play, which would take those same 40 seconds off the clock. The only drawback at that time would be one less timeout, but that’s the educated gamble you need to take.

The ideal, yet realistic Patriots’ scenario late in the game was to have the ball after they let the Giants score, but with 1:37 left to play, not :57.

Ninety-seven seconds is enough for Tom Brady. Fifty-seven seconds was not. His head coach let him down.

On another note, I’m almost 100% sure Belichick would have called a timeout if he had three left. He only had two because of earlier in the drive:

Challenging Manningham’s catch was the wrong decision.

…most importantly because no highlights showed any indication Manningham’s feet were out of bounds, but that’s the guys upstairs’ fault.

By challenging the play, you put yourself at risk to lose a key timeout. I think it was more beneficial for Belichick to keep the challenge flag in the arsenal, play the cards you were dealt, and save the timeout.

With about 3:40 to play, the Giants are at midfield, and if they score quickly, you put yourself in the exact position Tom Brady said he wanted to be in: down and with the ball late in the fourth quarter (but with more than :57 seconds).

If the play came on third or fourth down, challenge it, but the Giants were in four down territory. In the self-destructive “prevent” defense every team plays in that situation, Eli Manning would have gotten a first down in three plays anyway.

Granted, you can say, “Corey, so then why don’t you just not play defense and let them score from midfield?” I’m not arguing let them score, but the lost timeout ended up leading to a huge Belichick mental error.

I am arguing if Tom Brady had 1:37 left instead of :57, the Patriots are your Super Bowl Champions.

It’s Time to Fire Mike D’Antoni – Here’s Why

The Knicks are playing .500 basketball since Carmelo Anthony came to the Knicks last February and .500 basketball since acquiring the most prized free agent, Tyson Chandler, this offseason.

That’s unacceptable. Here’s three reasons why the New York Knicks need a new head coach.

1) Defense Wins Championships

Of the last ten NBA champions, nine have finished in the top ten in defense during the regular season. Five have finished in the top three. Mike D’Antoni is notorious for his “All Offense, No Defense” coaching system. D’Antoni’s Suns lead the league in scoring from 2004-2007, but never made it further than the Western Conference Finals. While “the best defense is a good offense” is a popular aphorism, it doesn’t work in the NBA.

In the nine full seasons Mike D’Antoni has been a head coach, he has finished in the bottom three in defense six times. His teams have never allowed fewer than 102.8 points per game, yet no NBA champion since the 1995 Rockets has allowed more than 97.2 points per game.

2) Too much indecision

In a less objective argument, the Knicks have no fluidity right now. In their embarrassing loss two nights ago to (ironically) the Phoenix Suns, I saw a lot of stuttering instead of playing, watching instead of moving, and thinking instead of reacting. The Knicks are playing like they have too many superstars – a 60 minute game of roullete, “OK lets give it to Amar’e in the post, then Carmelo on the wing, then Amar’e for an elbow jumper…”

Before Carmelo came to the Knicks, there was more motion. The Knicks let the game come to them instead of trying to force the action. They need to get back to those fundamentals, and I think D’Antoni is too lost to do so.

3) Amar’e and Carmelo do not fit into the “seven seconds or less offense”

D’Antoni preaches shooting the ball – every shot is a good shot. It works when Steve Nash is your orchestrator, but not with the Knicks’ inexperienced backcourt. Telling Carmelo Anthony to shoot! shoot! shoot! is like letting a bull loose in a china shop. D’Antoni’s system fails to regulate Anthony’s shot selection – hence we see Carmelo pulling up for contested 18 foot jumpers instead of working off the ball for the better shot.

Carmelo is shooting 41% from the field this year, his worst output since his rookie season.

Comparably, Amar’e is best off the dribble or when he’s open for an elbow J. For either one of those things to happen, you need to let plays develop – you need to settle into the half court offense, which the Knicks rarely do.

Lastly, Amar’e’s knees will give out. I don’t know when, but he won’t be playing basketball at 35 (in 2019). Amar’e Stoudemire is a beast of a man, yet injury prone. He wears goggles every game because of a retina injury he suffered in Phoenix, his knees are weak and his lower back is a time bomb. In a system that requires constant running, a more relaxed offense would mean more minutes for Amar’e and more effective play from the Knicks’ superstars. In this condensed season, this point is magnified.

Hopefully the Knicks will be getting Baron Davis back soon. His experience at point guard and ability to shoot the three are just what the Knicks need, but I’m not convinced he’s the savior of the franchise. The Knicks will win more games with Baron Davis than without him, but they won’t be a better team – they’ll be a less worse team. As mentioned earlier, Mike D’Antoni does not have a winning system. Even if Baron Davis stays healthy (he won’t), the Knicks are destined at best for the four seed in the Eastern Conference, and if they’re lucky a second round exit.

Why not promote defensive specialist Mike Woodson to the head coaching position? Anthony and Stoudemire are elite on the offensive side – it’s their defense that needs work. If Woodson can round off their game on the defensive side, then you have a realistic chance to compete for an NBA title.

The Colts Front Office is Making Bad Moves

J-E-T-S. Peyton Manning might be there next season.

My second post ever in this blog talked about the importance of Peyton Manning to the Indianapolis Colts: what is Manning’s WAR (wins after replacement).

The Indianapolis Colts went 2-14 without their star quarterback in 2011, only their second losing season since Manning’s rookie season in 1998. Arguably the best quarterback in the league, would the Colts be a playoff contending team had he not been hurt?

I think the Colts are a nine-win team this year with Peyton Manning, meaning Peyton Manning’s War would be around 7.0, guesstimating he is responsible for 44% of his team’s wins.

To put that in perspective, according to baseball-reference.com, Los Angeles Dodgers’ Matt Kemp led the MLB with a 10.0 WAR, meaning he was responsible for 6.2% of his team’s wins. Granted, there’s no one position in sports more important than a quarterback, but the distance between percentages is too big to ignore.

With that said, I disagree with the Colts’ shakeup this offseason. Head Jim Caldwell, Vice Chairman Bill Polian, and General Manager Chris Polian have all been fired this month. The front office looks at a 2-14 record, but what can you expect when arguably the best player in the league is sidelined for the season.

Now that the damage is done, Peyton Manning will be on another team next season. Manning disclosed his disappointment in candid and honest remarks made after the firings of the Polians. In a system where repetition and comfort were crucial to Manning’s success, I think we’ll find Manning asking for a trade sometime before or immediately following April’s draft. The Colts have already said they plan to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick.

Why not the Jets? A team with equal amounts of disunity and chaos, the Jets’ quarterback situation is in dire straits for a shake-up. Multiple players have called out Mark Sanchez for his work ethic and contentment, and after a disappointing 2011 campaign, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets are in the running for Peyton Manning.

I think the Colts should have kept their front office and head coach, picked Andrew Luck, and let him observe Peyton Manning for two years. Let him spend some time in the “minor leagues.” Peyton has at least two years left, and it would have made for a smooth transition. Even if Peyton was flat out against tutoring Luck…Aaron Rodgers still turned out pretty well.

The Giants are in the NFC Championship Game. hhhhhwat?

The Giants are playing with house money. In August, no one thought Big Blue would still be alive midway through January. You didn’t, and neither did I. Since then, Giants fans learned who Victor Cruz is, the Giants proved you can lose four straight in the second half of the season and still control your own destiny, and Eli Manning may have finally tattooed his name into the “elite quarterback” category – a fraternity I thought he pledged his way into three years ago.

The “may have” in that previous sentence is tentative to change. If the Giants win it all in the 2011 season, you can remove it altogether. That four star gold “C” means he’s the man in charge.

It’s not how good of a team you are, but how good you are for the 60 minutes on the field.

The Giants are not a better team than the Packers. If the two teams played ten times, I think Green Bay would win seven. However, in a blessing in disguise, the Giants got injured at the right time. Osi Umenyiora’s perfectly timed injury got him back just in time for a tune up game in week 17. The whole Giants team seemed to come back just as the regular season was ending as well.

In my previous post I had zero trust in my team to make any noise this postseason. Just over a month ago I watched a struggling football team look weak in the secondary, uphill on the ground, and a clueless on special teams.

Then finally and out of nowhere, the one constant – Peyton’s younger brother, finally finds his team. The defense (and especially the secondary) picked up, the running game reappeared, and Eli’s wide-receivers think they’re some of the best in the league. The Giants still have no special teams unit… but I can live without that, so long as you play solid on offense and defense.

And who’s been on and off the hot seat more than Tom Coughlin? He pushes the New York Giants’ fans and front office to the brink. In 2007 the Giants started 0-2, and were down 17-3 at the half to the Washington Redskins in week 3. I’m convinced if the Giants lost that game Coughlin was gone. I’m also convinced if Coughlin didn’t win week 17 against the Dallas Cowboys he was gone. Somehow he finds a way to rally his troops just in time. My previous post talked about how Coughlin would be gone by the end of January – I’m still not 100% sure he’s safe, but it looks that way.

Now the Giants play the 49ers, a team they showed they can beat back in week 10. They held a one point lead going into the fourth quarter. Granted, they now face the tall task of beating Alex Smith and Co. in SanFran, but again, it’s not how good of a team you are, but how good you are at the right time. That’s why the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007 and why the 1980 Olympic Hockey team won gold.

Eli has been here before. He’s a quarterback entering the prime of his career, yet with Super Bowl experience under his belt. Will the Giants again hold up their Road Warrior mantra? Will Alex Smith lead the New York Knicks of football to a championship game (a team that’s usually so good but out of nowhere becomes terrible for ten years)?

Who knows… in five years, you may refer to Peyton as Eli’s older brother.

Jets/Giants, & why Tom Coughlin will be fired before my January 31st birthday

The Jets and Giants will face off this Saturday in an essential Christmas Eve matchup

Ironically on the week Aaron Rodgers wins the AP Athlete of the Year, he loses a football game for the first time in a calendar year. If you picked that to happen on the same week the Colts win their first game, then hats off to you. I still don’t believe you, but hats off. The National Football League has now owned the third Male Athlete of the Year in the last five years (Drew Brees – 2010; Tom Brady -2007).

But if you picked  the forgotten NFC East team to manhandle the Gotham Giants, then I believe you. The Giants have had problems with playing down to their opponent’s level all season. In week 5, they lost to the then 1-3 Seattle Seahawks. In Week 13, they nearly handed the Packers their first loss of the season. The following week, they beat their division rival Dallas Cowboys on their own last second field goal.

As logic follows, they then get slaughtered by the now 5-9 Washington Redskins, at home, in a must-win situation. Since it’s against my morals to root for a Philadelphia based team, the Giants must beat the Jets and the Cowboys to make the playoffs.

Against my better judgement, I believe the Giants will do so. Mark Sanchez can’t throw the ball, which fits perfectly into the Giants’ “Everything but Secondary” defensive strategy. Eli Manning is the most underrated quarterback in the league, and the offense will be fine assuming his wide receivers can catch the ball.

Looking at passer rating alone, Mark Sanchez is 36th out of the 42 active quarterbacks listed on pro-footballrefernce.com. I still have no clue what passer rating is, but it’s omni-presently used in today’s stats-driven sports world, enough for me to safely assume it’s an accurate statistic.

The Giants defense will show up, and with that boost of confidence beat the Jets on Saturday. The Giants usually play well against the Cowboys, and will win a close one in the Meadowlands next week.

But…even if they make the playoffs, they’re not going anywhere. The Giants’ secondary has so many holes, they have zero running game, and assuming Eli Manning can’t put up 49 points, the Giants will get romped in the first round of the playoffs if they’re lucky enough to get there – which brings me to my central argument.

Tom Coughlin will not be the Giants’ coach next season. Remember, Coughlin was on the Hot Seat four years ago when his team started 0-2. Granted, they went on to win the Super Bowl, but it was because he changed his coaching style. Players complained Coughlin was too tough. For example, if you weren’t wearing the right socks on the team plane, you were reprimanded. Coughlin softened up, and it was just what the doctor ordered.

Skip forward to today, and he’s lost his team. It’s the same story every year – start strong, end lethargic. Under Coughlin, the Giants are 47-17 in the first half of the year, then boast a ghastly 25-37 record in the latter half. He’s also tied for the fifth longest tenured coach in the NFL. It’s been a nice run, but it’s time.

The Giants are so used to flunking late in the year it’s ingrained in their heads. “Okay, were down again…same story different week. This sucks.” They set themselves up for failure. They need a new attitude, new mindset, and with that will come a new head coach.

I turn 22 on January 31st. Preparing for the Super Bowl would be the ideal present, but a new face to my favorite football franchise will be a nice consolation prize.

Today will be the most interesting day of sports for a long time

Today you saw a bench-clearing brawl, an unranked team beat a #1 on a game winning three, and #13 Kansas upset #2 Ohio State.

You will never see that combination of highs and lows in one day again in your lifetime.

Earlier today Cincinnati’s Yancy Gates threw a punch that left Xavier center Kenny Frease’s face looking like he belonged in the MMA octogon. Here’s the picture. He looks like this guy:

About five hours later, Indiana’s Christian Watford hits a three point buzzer beater to top #1 Kentucky by a point.

Swish.

A back and forth final minute featured multiple lead changes and the underdog emerging victorious. The crowd rushed the court so fast it looked like a rock concert. You literally couldn’t see any hardwood. That game alone would have illicit the “big day” label for college basketball.

And then a bench-clearing brawl on top of that?

Fortunately, bench-clearing brawls have become a rarity in sports today. Unfortunately, everyone loves them. A thrown punch in a basketball game is immediately a front-cover story.

Only something as crazy as an unranked team’s buzzer beater to knock off the top team in the country could compete for attention with a brawl, so I pose the question.

To top that off, the #2 team in the country lost as well – which, once again, would be the top story almost any other day.

To top that off, Ryan Braun, the MLB’s best National League player in 2011 will now forever be labeled a cheater.

All of this coming on the day college football announces its Heisman winner.

Listed above are five storylines that would lead the sports world on most days. Combined with all the NBA drama, Enjoy watching ESPN tomorrow. Today will be the most exciting day in sports for a long time.

Congratualtions to Tiger Woods

I blogged a little while ago about how I wanted to see Tiger Woods win again. It had been over two years since his last win, and the sport certainly lost popularity. I’ll bet you didn’t know England’s Luke Donald won the most money on the PGA Tour in 2011. I didn’t. I just Wikipedia-ed it. I’ll bet you didn’t know Charl Schwartzel won the Masters in April. Not Charles…Charl.

It’s good to see Woods, in his traditional Sunday red, once again give that unmistakeable fist pump with the ear to ear gleam we were once so accustomed, and possibly, bored of.

Golf needed this win. Tiger needed this win. Woods has the invaluable ability to draw in the casual fan. That’s me. I’ll never really sit down and watch golf unless it’s the Sunday of a major championship or Tiger Woods is in the running…or if my dad calls me in to watch K.J. Choi’s awesome bunker shot or Jim Furyk’s swing, “Ugh…man he’s got the best swing in golf. Hey Cor- check this out.” At least twice a year I’ll hear that. He really does have a nice swing but I digress.

Yesterday, I found myself turning on the golf to see the leaderboard. If I’m tuning in just because of Tiger Woods, that means tens of thousands of others are too.

If golf wants to acquire the status of the unofficial fifth major sport in the United States, then Tiger Woods needs to start winning again.