Name the NFL team by a picture literally dictating the team. This picture to my left would be the Dolphins. I greatly disappointed myself and only got 20 of 32, so I may chalk this one up as a loss. Don’t get used to it.
SPORCLE OF THE WEEK: NFL: LITERALLY
As usual, if you cheat, I will force you to think of something really funny next time you’re in a quiet environment. Everyone will look at you and wonder why you’re smirking.
They don’t hit, they don’t move runners over, their captain and best player right now is out for the year, their closer is not with them, and they still have to win four of their next five games, three of which would be in Detroit, two of which are against the league’s best starting pitcher.
Aside for a freak four-run ninth inning in game one, the Bronx Bombers have not scored in their last 21 other innings.
And they’re an hour away from Justin Verlander – the league leader in innings pitched and holder of the 100 mph eighth-inning fastball.
If the Yankees don’t defeat the reigning MVP and Cy Young award winner, they’ll have to win four games in a row, something they won’t do.
No one expects the Yankees to win tonight. I don’t. What life have they shown? Every inning, every at-bat, every pitch plays like a broken record – home run or strikeout.
No one expects you to win – it’s Detroit’s game to lose. Alex Rodriguez is 3-23 this postseason. He has recorded five hits over the last two postseasons, the same amount as Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter.
Nick Swisher is a mind-boggling 1-35 in his postseason career with runners in scoring position. At least he shows the decency to hit consistently.
Unlike Robinson Cano. His sexy 24-39 (.615) run to end the season foreshadowed his corpselike 2-32 and record-breaking 0-26 this postseason.
You can’t predict baseball. That’s why I predict the Yankees will win tonight.
There’s no pressure. To put in perspective how bad the Yankees are, analyze that. In a must win game, New York’s lack of everything has rendered them at the doorstep of death, but ultimate peace.
No stress, no expectation of victory.
“I don’t set goals, because if you never set goals, you’ll never be disappointed”
– Vince Vaughn from Dodgeball. I’m paraphrasing.
Common sense suggests postseason pressure has tangibly affected the Yankees, but statistics will prove it.
Curtis Granderson’s lifetime batting average is .262 with a standard deviation of .062 over nine years. If you’re unfamiliar with stats, a value outside two “standard deviations” of the mean is officially labeled “unusual.”
Granderson’s 2-26 this postseason (.115) is less than two standard deviations (less than .138) away from his lifetime average (.262 – .062 – .062 = .138) meaning there is something different about his 2-26.
But Corey you’re looking at an almost nominal sample size compared to a whole career. That’s unfair.
Fair argument, but look at Robinson Cano – lifetime .308 hitter, standard deviation .061 over eight years.
His 2-32 (.063) this postseason is over four standard deviations away from his lifetime average. There is just under a one in 15,787 chance that this stretch is strictly coincidental.
Again, small sample size, but when Swisher, Rodriguez, Granderson, and Cano are all hitting “unusually,” there is a significant contributing factor.
Baseball is too weird. There’s too much going for Detroit. Everything points to a Tigers victory.
It’s why the Yankees will win tonight.
I’m experimenting with a Sporcle of the Week segment starting now.
If you’ve never played at Sporcle.com, it’s incredibly addicting. Random brief quizzes from state capitals, to word ladders, to sports trivia, etc. Essentially, if it qualifies for a Jeopardy category, it’s on Sporcle.
Starting this week I’m going to search for a fun, fair quiz and see if you can all beat my high score, which you won’t be able to do.
WEEK ONE: SPORTS SPELLING BEE
ex. The Patriots’ coach is Bill _______
I got 16 of 22.
I have a friend that works in New York City, and two days a week he has to deal with this one higher-up who he can’t stand. It makes his day miserable and there’s nothing he can do about it.
Put yourself in this situation – perhaps it’s very easy, would you rather deal with that person on Monday and Tuesday, or Wednesday and Thursday?
Abstractly, that’s the question you can pose to the remaining eight teams in the MLB postseason.
Because MLB adopted an additional wild card game after the 2012 schedule had been released, headquarters was forced to squish an extra day of baseball into a month-long period originally designed for one less game.
To make room, the team with home-field advantage in the division series will play games three, four, and five at home instead of the conventional sandwich setup of games one, two, and five at home. This takes out the second potential off-day of travel.
The first three years of the division series (1995-97) originally featured this “2-3” setup, but switched to “2-2-1” in 1998 to give the team with the better record a better chance to jump ahead in the series, arguing, “Give the best team the best chance to win.”
But I believe starting on the road is more advantageous for the “better” team. Team “Home-Field Advantage,” (referred to as “team HFA” for the rest of this post) can relax knowing one road win is the goal.
And if they lose both, you’re still coming back home for the rest of the series.
This happened in 1995. Don Mattingly and the Yankees faced Randy Johnson and the Seattle Mariners in the best of five, ’95 ALDS. With that original 2-3 format, the Yankees won games one and two at home before Seattle rallied for three straight wins Northwest. So losses in games one and two is not suicide.
Imagine this scenario:
In the 2-2-1 format, say the Yankees sneak into the playoffs with an 87-75 record and play the 103-59 Texas Rangers in the ALDS. With games one and two on the road, New York’s goal is to win just one of those two games, maybe get lucky, and hope to clinch at home.
On the flip side, Texas, by default, needs to win both home games to maintain home-field advantage. In baseball, momentum changes with the next day’s starting pitcher – winning two straight can be a daunting task.
Probability coupled with a general guesstimation will tell you the better team will win both games only about 30-35% of the time, meaning the “wrong” team will have home-field advantage by game three 65-70% of the time.
So is it an advantage?
This year’s 2-3 setup takes loads of pressure off team HFA. Take the example a few paragraphs up, but now imagine the 2-3. Texas’ goal is to win just one game in New York, forcing the Yankees to win a best-of-three in the Lone Star State.
Essentially, the 2-2-1 setup puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the team with the best record.
If you disagree, here’s an article that argues why I’m completely wrong.
The argument above is if team HFA loses the first two games on the road, then the “wrong” team has stolen momentum and is in a prime position to advance.
“Well, then you should have won one of those first two games on the road. Maybe you’re not the better team,” is my answer to that.
With the 2-3, you take out one less day of travel. One less day of expensive flights and travel coordination. In a potential New York/Oakland matchup, you have a chance to adjust to the time difference and don’t get thrust back on a plane after a single night in a California hotel.
With today’s substantial emphasis on finance, you can use that money elsewhere.
Every time I’ve had a team with home-field advantage in the playoffs, “I” feel forced to win both those games, but with the HFA-Yankees going to Baltimore for the first two, I was more relaxed knowing one win out of the next two is the goal.
If the fans feel that way, then so does the organization.
Mr. Selig, I like this playoff setup. Tell the guy who wrote the article above he’s wrong, and punish him by returning to the format you originally drew up.
When I was good at basketball way back in middle school I remember my opponent charging down the lane. I was ready for the contact and when he reached me, I flopped. He stopped in time, but the trailing ref gave me the call.
You know the feeling when you tease your little sibling and they retaliate, but they get in trouble, not you?
— Or for the less fortunate, remember the feeling your older sibling got when it was vice-versa?
I felt I deserved the reward because I outsmarted the referee.
Starting this season, the NBA is looking to issue fines or other penalties for “flopping.” In layman’s terms, if I force you to fall over, okay, but don’t pretend the Hulk threw you from the three-point line to the elbow.
I get it, but I’m not a fan of these penalties. Flopping is part of the game.
(Here’s my favorite flop of all time. Skip to :20)
If 5-5, 135 lb. Earl Boykins is charging into the lane, and there’s 6-11, 240 lb. Dwight Howard ready to take the charge, is it flopping if Howard falls over to get the call? Boykins could hit Howard at 10 miles an hour and he may not budge.
**I was curious about this, so my inner nerd did the math: Essentially, if an equal-weight human barreled into Howard at just under six mph, he would probably fall, but you get the point.
Where’s the line drawn?
Howard will want to “flop” to convey the contact denotes a foul, but when should he get fined for doing so?
I think the league is going to have a lot on their plate if this rule is added to the game. Professional players who have sold fouls their whole life now need to change a deeply embedded basketball mindset, forcing them to think, not react.
I would be mad if I’m Dwyane Wade. Flopping is an art, and he’s good at it.
I feel this should be Wade’s stance on flopping: “I’m going to flop. If I get the call, great, if not, then my defender has extra room to work with.”
Why not tell the refs to swallow their whistle more often?
Watch a mid-90s contest between the Bulls and Miami Heat, or Knicks and Pacers. There was much more contact and what I think was a better game.
Granted, with the violence byproduct and today’s emphasis on safety, we won’t see that style of basketball anytime soon. But watch Scottie Pippen and Charles Oakley fight for rebounds and tell me you’re not entertained. I digress.
If the NBA implements penalties, I would hope all flops be reviewed following the game, similar to how the NFL treats illegal hits. I don’t think a majority of fans want a flop to count as a technical foul.
I can’t officially make the argument “These new rules are bad for the NBA” because the flopping rules are still being tweaked, but if the NBA implements a flop-free game, it will cause more problems than it solves.
Despite Rafael Soriano’s strong performance so far in 2012, Mariano Rivera’s absence has hurt the Yankees in more ways than the surface conveys.
This year, Soriano has thrown to a 2.10 ERA and has beautifully patched up Rivera’s absence. His 42 saves through 152 games have already surpassed Rivera’s average of 40 over the last three seasons. Soriano has blown four saves in 2012, identical to Rivera’s annual average over those same three years.
On May 3rd, Rivera tried to track down a Jayson Nix fly ball during batting practice in Kansas City, but tore his ACL near the warning track at Kauffman Stadium, ending his season and wreaking havoc in New York.
Enter Rafael Soriano – Rays closer from two years ago. Instead of Yankees management pushing 2011’s eighth-inning man David Robertson one inning up the totem pole, Joe Girardi pops Soriano from the seventh inning to the ninth.
As a side note, I thought it was the correct move at the time. From 2009-11, both Soriano and Rivera struck out just over a batter per nine innings, both sported an above average K/BB ratio, and while Rivera’s ERA was better, Soriano’s experience translated into the closer role better than the talented, but young Robertson.
But to say the Yankees have not been hurt by Rivera’s absence is wrong.
This year, the Yankees have thrown to a 3.32 ERA in the seventh inning (source here). By filling Rivera’s gap, Soriano simply borrows from Peter to pay Paul. The seventh inning role is left unfilled by a solid, trustworthy arm and is instead patched together with a hopeful concoction of unproven or young arms (Clay Rapada, David Phelps, Boone Logan, Cody Eppely, etc.)
NUMBER CRUNCHING: Soriano has pitched in 66 games this year. For argument’s sake, let’s say all those games came in “close” ballgames in the seventh inning, the inning he would pitch if Rivera were healthy.
Ignoring the fallacy of the predetermined outcome, let’s say Mariano is himself and Soriano still throws to a 2.10 ERA, allowing all 15 earned runs in the seventh inning. Taking the 3.32 ERA of Yankees seventh-inning pitching in 2012, opponents would score about nine less runs than if Mariano was healthy.
While this ignores many variables and requires multiple assumptions, you can’t ignore the big picture: The Yankees would average more wins, and have a greater chance to win the World Series, if Mariano Rivera was healthy, despite Soriano’s excellent season.
To look at it from a different angle, Rivera has averaged about three wins after replacement over the last three years according to baseball-reference.com. Say average seventh-inning pitchers are replacing Soriano, the Yankees would have a four-game lead over Baltimore with 10 games to play, not one.
In the first year with added emphasis on a division title, a four game lead would allow Girardi to relax and set up his pitching rotation for a likely ALDS appearance.
The game has changed over time. One hundred years ago, starters threw complete games every outing and the bullpen was reserved for starting pitchers that just weren’t good enough.
Slowly, a closer was in demand, then an eighth inning reliever, and in today’s game, a seventh-inning pitcher.
Since 2004, no pitcher has thrown over 255 innings in one season. In 1993, six hurled more than 255 innings. In 1963, six pitchers threw at least 275 innings, three over 300.
For the cherry on top, Will White threw 680 innings in 1879, and all 75 of his starts were complete games.
(For this reason I think Cy Young’s record of 511 wins is the most unbreakable record in sports, but that’s for another day.)
Since 2008, starting pitchers average a tad under six innings per start (141,878.1 innings pitched in 24,010 MLB starts since 2008 averages to 5.92 innings per start), so for a championship team, a seventh-inning man is vital.
With Rivera back in 2013, the Yankees have the best back end of the bullpen on paper. For a perennial offensive juggernaut, a trio of Soriano, Robertson, and Rivera will give the Yankees’ starters the confidence to relax and focus on just six strong innings, while the offense knows a late deficit is always within reach.
As for this season, are the Yankees a championship team without Mariano Rivera? No, but they are capable of winning the World Series. There’s a difference.
I want to thank all my readers as well as those who found my blog and took the time to peruse. This summer, I’m working with the New Jersey Jackals of the Can-Am Independent baseball league as the lead play-by-play broadcaster. It’s going great! But unfortunately, it has stolen the time needed to write clean, concise, and well-written blog posts.
This blog is not to be lost in the annals of time, but I will most likely halt new posts until season’s end come the first or second week of September.
I have great ideas for Time to Schein as well, so I encourage you to come on back. Have a great day everyone 🙂
If you would like to listen to Jackals’ broadcasts, you can listen live at Jackals.com.
In 1941, Boston Red Sox’ Ted Williams went into the final day of baseball’s regular season batting exactly .400. While he could’ve sat out – Boston was 17 games back of the first place Yankees, Williams understood batting .400 wouldn’t mean as much if put himself before the team. Williams went a combined 6-8 in the doubleheader (Game 1 Game 2) – on his way to the .406 batting average we haven’t seen since.
According to this story on ESPN.com, Bryant will sit out in the final game of the season against the Sacramento Kings tonight, forfeiting a chance to take home his third career scoring title. He needed 38 points to beat out Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant, who played their final game of the regular season last night.
Kobe had the chance to smack ESPN in the face tonight. By scoring 38, he makes an argument he’s the best player in the NBA, not the seventh best according to a preseason rank on NBA on ESPN. Remember, this comes in the same season he had to adjust to a coach not named Phil Jackson and a Scottie Pippen not named Derek Fisher. He has not let his basketball stardom fog his vision of another NBA title – basketball’s ultimate measuring stick.
In today’s story with ESPNLosAngeles, Kobe said, “It’s not a challenge for me to score 38 points, you know? … We know I can go out and score 38 points. The most important thing is sending the right message to the group which is putting a championship above all else. That means rest. That means letting other guys play. That means us getting ready for Sunday (for the playoff opener).”
Yeah…Kobe is exactly right. We do know he can go out and score 38 at whim. He’s the only player in the league that can say that without a backlash of pseudo-news and debate on Twitter. Let me know in the comments if you disagree. LeBron could say it and be truthful, but we love hating LeBron too much to let a comment like that slide.
While Kobe could use father time to school the younger Durant, he didn’t. He showed class. He conveyed he’s not bigger than the game. It was refreshing, and I think it reminded basketball fans how special Kobe is.
When we look back on Kobe’s career, there will be an unofficial asterisk next to Kobe’s amount of scoring titles. In a sports era where asterisks are associated with negativity, this asterisk will reiterate how special Kobe was.
“Yes son, Kobe only won three scoring titles way back when, but he could have had a fourth if he decided to play in the final game of that 2012 season.”
Remember when Jose Reyes voluntarily sat out of last season’s finale to ensure his batting title? Yes he won, but sports fans partner his batting title with, “Yes, but he sat out the last day of the season to ensure he would win,” communicating he put himself before the team.
Rest up Kobe. A third scoring title doesn’t look as impressive as a sixth championship.
Probably not, but they have a solid chance to own 75% of them.
No United States city has won a championship in all four major sports in even the same decade. Granted, this is a tough task because only 12 cities house all four major sports. Can you name them?
– Oakland in the 1970s – the Raiders, Athletics, and Warriors won championships but the Golden Seals did not.
– Los Angeles in the 1980s – the Raiders, Dodgers, and Lakers won championships but the Kings did not.
– New York in the 1990s – the Rangers, Yankees, and Giants won championships but the Knicks did not.
– Boston in the 2000s – the Patriots, Red Sox, and Celtics won championships but the Bruins did not.
Boston nearly owned all four championships in a 365 day period from 2007-08. The Red Sox won in October 2007 and the Celtics in June 2008, but the Patriots were denied a perfect season by the New York Giants and the Bruins lost in the first round of the 2008 playoffs. Boston did walk away with a hockey championship in ’08 however – Boston College won the National Championship.
The New York Giants won 2012’s Super Bowl after dropping to 7-7 following a horrid loss to the Washington Redskins. Las Vegas odds said the Giants were 100:1 to win the Super Bowl after that loss according to my father. The Knicks are currently 25:1, but more on them later.
The Yankees always have a chance – just like Boston, Philly, or any team coached by Mike Scioscia, I’ll put the Yankees’ odds at 8:1. I strongly believe the Yankees will be one of the final eight playoff teams, so from there it’s anybody’s call.
Let’s say the Yankees stay healthy, click, and get a little bit of luck. They certainly can win the World Series.
The New York Rangers shocked the hockey world this season and established themselves as the best team in the east, arguably in the NHL. Vegas odds has them at 11:2.
8:1 x 11:2 = 44:1 odds (2.3%) New York owns at least three championships in 2012, which includes the Super Bowl Champion Giants.
The Knicks have been New York’s weakest link for the last ten years, but this year they almost have a chance to win it all. Unlike football, basketball is a seven game series and is arguably the most predictable of the four major sports. For the record, I don’t see them beating Chicago or Miami, but remember – the eighth seeded Knicks beat the first-seeded Heat in the first round in 1999. Advantage ’99 Knicks though because they beat the Heat in a then-best of five series.
Passing and playing aggressive defense has given me this slim glimmer of hope with a lot of luck the Knicks can go for a title. Mike Woodson coaches a winning system that emphasizes rebounding and defense rather than D’Antoni’s double shot of offense.
Carmelo Anthony needs to score and Amar’e Stoudemire needs to buy in to Mike Woodson’s system.
Carmelo vs. Durant in game six at The Garden? Nah probably not, but if the Rangers play like they have all year and the Yankees find a way to take home #28 in November, New York will breed a surplus of haters by the Mayan Apocalypse.
…the more the merrier.
The Lakers are a better team without Andrew Bynum. Their career 1-8 three-point shooting center has a lot of growing up to do.
With 16 seconds left on the shot clock in Tuesday’s game against the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers’ Andrew Bynum launched a three pointer from the top of the key. He missed by a mile and was benched about a minute later. (I think he would’ve been benched even if he made the shot.)
But making the blatantly poor decision did not bother me as much as his attitude following it. Listen to Bynum’s body language in Tuesday’s post-game interview:
Subjectively, he sounds nonchalant and conveys a care-free persona.
Objectively, Bynum’s response at the 1:06 mark troubles me. “Why did you shoot the three?”
“I made one last night and wanted to take another one.”
“I” wanted to take another one, so “I” did. Bynum indirectly admitted he is a selfish player at times (at best). Bynum knows he belongs nowhere near that three point line, yet consciously chucked it up anyway.
It shows immaturity and an individualistic mindset. It shows Andrew Bynum’s attitude is detrimental to the Lakers’ locker room. Unfortunately, I believe his decision to shoot the three was a way of saying, “Yanno coach…I really don’t care what you think.”
**In my opinion, the Kobe and the Lakers are fed up with head coach Mike Brown. In his defense, replacing arguably the greatest coach in basketball history plus inheriting a veteran franchise is not an easy task.
Still, Brown will catch a lot of heat. Bynum’s interview begs the question, “Coach, do you have control of the locker room (let alone Andrew Bynum)?” Mike D’Antoni didn’t.
Do Bynum’s seven-foot frame and above average basketball skills eclipse the negative baggage his attitude elicits? Yes, the Lakers won two championships with him, but as he gains seniority, will Bynum’s pro/con baggage tilt in the opposite direction? I think within a year or two it will. What is his “negative attitude ceiling?” It doesn’t help he can’t stay healthy.
The Lakers’ biggest win would have been to trade Bynum in a package deal for Orlando’s Dwight Howard, but that’s a rant for another day.
“Intangibles” is the most underrated stat in sports. We drown ourselves in numbers, but give me a stat for locker room presence. Does this individual catalyze or retard the team’s progress?
It’s the one stat the sports world is missing, but at least now I know where Bynum ranges in the category.
Time to Schein 