saints – Time to Schein

Once Dez Bryant’s knuckles were ruled out of bounds on this play October 28th, the New York Giants sat comfortably atop the NFC East at 6-2, 2.5 games ahead of the Eagles and Cowboys, primed for another playoff appearance. Coming off a Super Bowl championship, it was logical to feel confident the experienced Eli Manning could lead his team through a serious championship push for the second straight year.

Ultimately, it seemed the Giants grew complacent with their game and let their guard down to ultimately miss the playoffs entirely, an utter disappointment for a franchise and fan base expecting more.

But 2013 will be different for Eli & Co. The brightest light at the end of 2012’s depressive tunnel was a renaissance of New York’s running game, one with energy we haven’t seen since Tiki Barber’s pre-Eli days. Journeyman-turned puzzle piece Andre Brown showed fans his brute force capabilities and rookie David Wilson showed us the explosive step Ahmad Bradshaw never offered. Couple this with New York’s weaker schedule and the fresh pressure to avoid a second straight “losing” season, the New York Giants will contend for the Super Bowl in 2013.

An athletic neophyte, Wilson’s agility and 4.40 40-yard dash (video) offer a glimmer of hope Big Blue can represent a game-changing back comparable to a Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, or even Robert Griffin III (According to the New York Times, Wilson has run the 40 in 4.29 seconds). While a long shot, there’s finally enough quickness to evoke a glimmer of hope.

In the last five games of the regular season, Brown recorded five touchdowns on only 35 carries, many in Brandon Jacobs-like short yardage situations. While I couldn’t find the numbers, I don’t remember Brown rushing for a loss many times in those games.

If there’s chemistry, this duo has the potential to propel the Giants to the other end of the rushing spectrum. Both of their ’12 performances qualify for guaranteed rushes in ’13, but this “friendly” competition will add fuel to their respective fires. That extra drive should ultimately bring out the best in one, if not both of the Giants’ running backs.

In its best-case scenario, the Giants’ new-found rushing game will force defenses to allocate more attention on the ground, therefore leading to more open receivers and an even more successful passing game.

*How the Giants won last year’s Super Bowl with the league’s worst rushing numbers is a mystery I will never solve. And while given his fair share of kudos, I feel Eli’s 2011-12 accomplishment is still underrated given that statistic.*

The only other silver-lining of New York’s underachieving season is the motivation it offers for the upcoming campaign. Before this year’s Baltimore Ravens, no team since the 2006 Steelers won a Super Bowl the year after winning a playoff game. While winning is always the ultimate goal, I theorize an underachieving season finale is heavier motivation to win than the fire to repeat. Look at the 2012 Miami Heat.

But while arguments supporting New York’s new rushing game and theories of losing seasons are nice, they’re subjective. Plus, coming into 2012 Wilson and Brown combined for four career rushes. How will they tweak their game to counter defenses’ adjustments? Brown will enter 2013 off a broken fibula and Casper the Friendly Ghost could have blocked better than Wilson. But New York’s 2013 strength of schedule is the most tangible reason the Giants will at least make the playoffs. The scheduling committee gave the Super Bowl champion Giants games against all winners of the ’11 NFC conferences – Packers, Saints, and 49ers. This year, New York will face a much weaker schedule, one that includes the dreadful AFC West. Take out the 13-3 Broncos and that conference boasted a 13-35 overall record this year (2012 standings).

With fresh assets at hand in 2013, a favorable schedule and a new-found motivation to elude the taste of failure, it will be a season Giants fans should look forward to. I correctly predicted the Giants would not make the playoffs in 2012, but am predicting a serious playoff representation in 2013.

Plus, the Giants have home-field advantage in this year’s Super Bowl whether they play or not. That cherry-on-top motivation may put them over the hump should they hit their stride come December.

I may be in the minority, but Falcons head coach Mike Smith made the better decision in overtime yesterday. For those of you who didn’t see, the Falcons went for it on 4th and inches in overtime against the Saints from their own 29. They failed to convert, and eventually lost when the Saints kicked a field goal off the turnover.

It didn’t work this time, but it was the right decision.

The Falcons are in the playoff race. They’re an above average football team, but not elite. To win the Super Bowl, you need to be one of two things: the best team, or a team that tricks themselves into thinking they are – the former example being the 2009 Saints and the latter the 2007 Giants.

The 4th and inches was an opportunity for Mike Smith to convey to his team, “We are an elite team. I have confidence in you. We can do this.”

More often than not, professional football teams will convert 4th and inches. For argument’s sake, I’d say 60% are converted. That number is not official, but the actual number is not under 50%. I’ll guarantee that.

In that case, theoretically the Falcons should pick up the first down. Simply by doing so, even if they still were to lose, shows the team what they could do under immense pressure when expected to make a play. Maybe they drive down the field and win the game. Maybe they proceed to go three and out and punt it away.

But the confidence the Falcons would have gained by converting and eventually winning would have outweighed the disappointment felt by yesterday’s outcome. Even if they convert and ultimately lose, the confidence boost is a mini-victory. If you want to win the Super Bowl and you’re not the best team in the league, you need to fill the void with confidence.

After the game, the unanimous reaction from the players was their coach made the right decision, but they needed to do a better job executing. They’re not lying for the cameras. Winning teams are relentless in aggression. Winning teams think they can do anything. The Falcons players are not going to keel over and feel they aren’t good enough to convert a 4th and inches – at any time or at anywhere on the field. Their coach gave them a chance to prove it.

Let’s say the Falcons punt it away, and the Saints march right down the field and win the game. Now, Coach Smith feels like he didn’t even give his team a chance to prove themselves. You start to play the “what-if” game, and everyone reconsiders the punt.

You may be reading this saying, “Corey, you don’t go for it in overtime that deep in your own territory. It’s idiotic.” If that’s the case, think of the message it sends to the other 31 teams if you convert. It shows Coach Smith is crazy, and he may do anything at any time. It’s now a unique advantage the Falcons have over all other teams – the label of “crazy.”

The overall pros of going for it in yesterday’s case outweigh the cons. Coach Smith made an educated gamble that unfortunately didn’t work. But if it had, the Falcons may have gone into week 11 6-3 atop the NFC South with the Titans, Vikings, and Texans upcoming. Three very winnable games could have put the Falcons at 9-3.

More importantly, it would have made them feel unstoppable.

I commend Mike Smith for his guts. He made the right coaching decision, and if given the opportunity, he should make the same one. Yesterday, his team let him down, not the other way around.

Tag: saints

Fresh Rushing Game Just One Reason New York Giants Are ’13 Super Bowl Contenders

Going for it on 4th and inches in OT was the right decision