Author: Corey Scheiner

You’re up one or two points with three minutes left. Both teams have all timeouts. 

I think I can guarantee you a win – by legally breaking the rules. Let me explain starting with a common football scenario.

For the purpose of this article, here’s the situation:

I ask: can the Cowboys run out the clock?

Yes, by abusing a legal loophole in the way holding penalties are enforced.

First, we never think about the unguarded, easily accessible half of the field – there’s a half acre of land behind you.

Can you coordinate three (or four) plays who’s sole purpose is to average about negative-10 to -15 yards per play, with the goal to eat up the most time possible?

We know the longest duration plays in football are the wildly entertaining multi-lateral desperation end of game tries.

I googled “amazing lateral football:”

Cal-Stanford 1982 took 20 seconds
Duke Miami 2016 took 46 seconds
Trinity Millsaps 2007 took 1:02

No I’m not linking you to the video. It’s not the point. If you want, google “amazing lateral football.” Now focus.

The scenario: 

You’ll see something like this:

 

But what about this? (P) for Dak Prescott and (Z) for Ezekiel Elliot

Note the location of Prescott. More than 10-15 yards deep with Elliot taking the snap in the wildcat.

With Zeke and Dak acting like sprinters passing a baton, coordinate a play where at the last safe opportunity, Zeke pitches it to Dak somewhere, say, around the 25 yardline. Now, maybe eight seconds in, you have a wide open field and a mobile quarterback with coordinated protection AND one remaining forward pass.

Now, coordinate your play not for the purpose of gaining yards, but finding space.

Defensive exhaustion is a trend in those miracle plays I didn’t link you. If the offense can survive the first 10-15 seconds, can Tavon Austin alternate with Zeke for four 50-second plays?

BUT COREY HOLY SHIT WHAT IF you fumble the ball or it goes horribly wrong?

Yes.

BUT COREY WHAT IF there’s a penalty? Forty seconds is a long time to play perfect football.

And here’s my headline…

It doesn’t matter. 

A penalty “penalizes” you in yards, not time. What if you don’t care about yards?

It’s 1st & 10 at midfield. I’m just out of field goal range up one point with 3:00 left. They have Tom Brady and three timeouts.

So what if I hold?

So what if every single offensive player holds their defender and gets flagged?

(I understand this makes a total mockery of the game. I ask for the purposes of this article to leave that emotion out, because I totally get it. I don’t really “want” to see this either).

You can only enforce a maximum of one (non-unsportsmanlike) penalty per play. Eleven offensive players hold, Zeke/Tavon run around like mad men and it takes the defense however long to bring em down.

Maybe you score a touchdown that gets taken back (45 seconds?). Maybe you lose 15 yards (45 seconds)?

Again, who cares?

Belichick, there’s now 2:20 left. You’re down one. You can give them:

1st & 25 (own 35)
2nd & 30 (own 30)

Even if it’s 2nd & 20, the correct play in this situation is to decline the penalty to bring the team closer to fourth down.

So eleven players hold, and you’ll decline the penalty.

But over the course of that play, if just ONE player on the Patriots commits ANY penalty…

Offset penalties. Redo down. You don’t get those 40 seconds back.

My team can break the rules. Your team must abide by all – perfectly – for 4x longer than you’re used to.

Okay let’s say the Patriots played penalty-free ball for the whole play.

Second down. Same thing. Took 40 seconds. 1:30 left at the two-minute warning.

Back to the obvious criticism this article spoon-feeds: there’s so much that can go terribly wrong.

• You can fumble – and a fumble in so much space will end as a defensive touchdown more often than regular fumbles (disregarding holding disadvantage)
• You can fail to run out the clock
•This will cause fights – can your team contain themselves when they get a cheap shot by a Patriot retaliating for a perspectively bush-league holding penalty

And pro-football reference gives a broad estimate of 80% chance Cowboys would win this game if played out normally.

But what if my example gives you, say, a 90% chance to win the game? Or higher?

The first team to do this also has the element of surprise. Can a team run a two-minute play? How long until the defense realizes for the first time in their football life their opponent has negative interest in advancing the ball net-forward.

The holding penalties would stop the clock, rendering Belichick’s timeouts meaningless. I can hold maybe eight or nine Patriots per play. And it doesn’t matter. You can’t get that time back. Penalties in football are designed to assume you’re trying to advance the ball forward on every play.

Well what if I don’t want to?

Bias disclosed, I’m a Yankees fan, and I haven’t felt this confident about my team in a long time. Letting Cano go was the best thing for New York. While a great talent, he’s not the gold standard for leadership nor hustle. I think the Mariners will regret this move in a few years.

Brian McCann is a leader and can command a pitching staff. Carlos Beltran is another great locker room guy and someone who can exude contagious confidence in the postseason.

If everyone stays healthy, this team will have both the talent and mental drive to make a serious postseason push. The last five World Series champions did not make the playoffs that preceding year.

This team always seems to be having fun; watch Wil Myers, one of the top breakout players in 2013. If James Loney has broken out of his shell for good and Evan Longoria stays healthy, the Rays can win 90 games. We’ll see if their young pitching can repeat last year’s performance.

I still feel they’ll finish third behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

I’m expecting a down year for Baltimore, heavily due to their intradivision competition. I love any team coached by Buck Showalter and we know what a stud Manny Machado is, but the O’s didn’t improve their roster nor rotation. Chris Davis and Machado will not be enough to win this year.

On paper, the Blue Jays have a representative club. But they strike out too much and seem to go for the long ball. Mark Buehrle looked lost last year, R.A. Dickey will have an average season, and their package won’t be enough to compete with the rest of the division.

They lack a winning team attitude, probably a by-product of 20 years experience AL East dumpster diving. I’m struggling to make a case why the Blue Jays will win more than 83 games. I don’t think they’ll go .500.

A World Series hangover is the only way the Red Sox won’t have an outstanding season. It just seemed the Red Sox had the ability to win every game late last year. They had an “it” factor. The beards bred team camaraderie. Dustin Pedroia drove team focus and was a leader on the field.

Pitching is the Red Sox’s only suspect category. Ryan Dempster’s sabbatical means Clay Buchholtz must stay healthy and John Lackey needs to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. Jon Lester should remain the ace he is. A 180-degree turn from 2012, a Yankees fan can only hope they come a full 360 here in 2014, but that won’t happen.

Aside from a few good moves to acquire Matt Davidson and Adam Eaton, there’s not too much to look forward to. Tyler Flowers was one of the top rookies of 2013 and should be their full-time catcher. The 27-year old strikes out too much but seems coachable and very talented. Chris Sale is the team’s most marketable and watchable player.

The skinny lefty had a great 2013 despite his 11-14 record. He’ll be the ace of the staff and probably one of the team’s few bright spots this year.

Norichika Aoki is a player that will make any team better. Last year he hit close to .290, stole 20 bases, played a good outfield, and walked more than he struck out. But they gave up their only young potential starter in Will Smith. Omar Infante is another good signing, but it won’t be enough.

It seems year after year the Royals go into the season with little to no expectations. Don’t we all just want to see them do well, just for once?

Any team coached by Terry Francona will be a solid one. A player’s manager, he’s a perfect fit in Cleveland. Jason Kipnis leads the list of young Indians ball players. Last year, no Indians starter threw to an ERA over 4.04. Justin Masterson is back and will lead the club.

There is nothing I don’t like about this team. A young, tight core getting only a kitten’s feed of postseason play, I expect Cleveland to channel last year’s disappointment into perpetual focus in 2014. They are my AL dark horse.

I think the Tigers won the Ian Kinsler deal. Austin Jackson strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter, and this deal allows Miguel Cabrera to chill out a bit back at first base. Kinsler’s disclosed displeasure of the deal means he’ll come out with a little extra in 2014.

It doesn’t seem Verlander’s current issue should be a factor once the season starts. And with arguably the top pitcher in the league, well see if Max Scherzer can once again lead the Tigers past the Indians. Those two teams should make for a great race come September.

The Twins made some nice pickups this offseason. Kurt Suzuki, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes. Nothing that will propel them past the Tigers or Indians. The Twins will most likely settle for third in the division.

Los Angeles Angels It seems the general consensus in the aftermath of the Mark Trumbo deal was the Angles got the best in the deal. And they did get a few solid pitchers in Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. But giving up a 30/100 guy isn’t easy, especially when you should expect almost nothing from Albert Pujols nor Josh Hamilton.

Still, a solid starting rotation and a representative starting lineup should give this team a chance in what is probably the worst division in the American League.

Houston Astros

Technically they’re in first place right now

Josh Donaldson gave us some great moments last year. Most notably his tarp catch (here). He hit over .300 and lead the team with 93 RBIs. Yoenis Cespedes showed his value in the second half, Brandon Moss gives them power, and Josh Reddick’s beard came through with a  lot of big moments. Scott Kazmir was a very good sign.

If their young staff can find a way to make it work, the bullpen (now featuring former Orioles closer Jim Johnson) will be enough to compete for the division title.

Robinson Cano’s signing was the big splash of the winter. They got a gold-caliber player, but I feel they’ll regret this signing earlier than later. Cano never took it upon himself to hustle nor call out a teammate for their lack of it. An immense talent, well see if a leader emerges elsewhere on the team – something tough to do when the clear-cut best player is not that type. He got his money, and no one can take it away from him. Let’s see if he gives 100%.

Prince Fielder, Shin Soo Choo, Daniel Bard: Three acquisitions I love, Choo my favorite. Wherever Choo has played, he puts up consistent 20/70/.290 numbers. A hard worker, Choo will be an excellent fit on a team with a certain playoff chance. If Daniel Bard can control his 99mph fastball, he’ll be a great setup man for Joe Nathan.