The Colts Front Office is Making Bad Moves

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J-E-T-S. Peyton Manning might be there next season.

My second post ever in this blog talked about the importance of Peyton Manning to the Indianapolis Colts: what is Manning’s WAR (wins after replacement).

The Indianapolis Colts went 2-14 without their star quarterback in 2011, only their second losing season since Manning’s rookie season in 1998. Arguably the best quarterback in the league, would the Colts be a playoff contending team had he not been hurt?

I think the Colts are a nine-win team this year with Peyton Manning, meaning Peyton Manning’s War would be around 7.0, guesstimating he is responsible for 44% of his team’s wins.

To put that in perspective, according to baseball-reference.com, Los Angeles Dodgers’ Matt Kemp led the MLB with a 10.0 WAR, meaning he was responsible for 6.2% of his team’s wins. Granted, there’s no one position in sports more important than a quarterback, but the distance between percentages is too big to ignore.

With that said, I disagree with the Colts’ shakeup this offseason. Head Jim Caldwell, Vice Chairman Bill Polian, and General Manager Chris Polian have all been fired this month. The front office looks at a 2-14 record, but what can you expect when arguably the best player in the league is sidelined for the season.

Now that the damage is done, Peyton Manning will be on another team next season. Manning disclosed his disappointment in candid and honest remarks made after the firings of the Polians. In a system where repetition and comfort were crucial to Manning’s success, I think we’ll find Manning asking for a trade sometime before or immediately following April’s draft. The Colts have already said they plan to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick.

Why not the Jets? A team with equal amounts of disunity and chaos, the Jets’ quarterback situation is in dire straits for a shake-up. Multiple players have called out Mark Sanchez for his work ethic and contentment, and after a disappointing 2011 campaign, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets are in the running for Peyton Manning.

I think the Colts should have kept their front office and head coach, picked Andrew Luck, and let him observe Peyton Manning for two years. Let him spend some time in the “minor leagues.” Peyton has at least two years left, and it would have made for a smooth transition. Even if Peyton was flat out against tutoring Luck…Aaron Rodgers still turned out pretty well.

The Giants are in the NFC Championship Game. hhhhhwat?

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The Giants are playing with house money. In August, no one thought Big Blue would still be alive midway through January. You didn’t, and neither did I. Since then, Giants fans learned who Victor Cruz is, the Giants proved you can lose four straight in the second half of the season and still control your own destiny, and Eli Manning may have finally tattooed his name into the “elite quarterback” category – a fraternity I thought he pledged his way into three years ago.

The “may have” in that previous sentence is tentative to change. If the Giants win it all in the 2011 season, you can remove it altogether. That four star gold “C” means he’s the man in charge.

It’s not how good of a team you are, but how good you are for the 60 minutes on the field.

The Giants are not a better team than the Packers. If the two teams played ten times, I think Green Bay would win seven. However, in a blessing in disguise, the Giants got injured at the right time. Osi Umenyiora’s perfectly timed injury got him back just in time for a tune up game in week 17. The whole Giants team seemed to come back just as the regular season was ending as well.

In my previous post I had zero trust in my team to make any noise this postseason. Just over a month ago I watched a struggling football team look weak in the secondary, uphill on the ground, and a clueless on special teams.

Then finally and out of nowhere, the one constant – Peyton’s younger brother, finally finds his team. The defense (and especially the secondary) picked up, the running game reappeared, and Eli’s wide-receivers think they’re some of the best in the league. The Giants still have no special teams unit… but I can live without that, so long as you play solid on offense and defense.

And who’s been on and off the hot seat more than Tom Coughlin? He pushes the New York Giants’ fans and front office to the brink. In 2007 the Giants started 0-2, and were down 17-3 at the half to the Washington Redskins in week 3. I’m convinced if the Giants lost that game Coughlin was gone. I’m also convinced if Coughlin didn’t win week 17 against the Dallas Cowboys he was gone. Somehow he finds a way to rally his troops just in time. My previous post talked about how Coughlin would be gone by the end of January – I’m still not 100% sure he’s safe, but it looks that way.

Now the Giants play the 49ers, a team they showed they can beat back in week 10. They held a one point lead going into the fourth quarter. Granted, they now face the tall task of beating Alex Smith and Co. in SanFran, but again, it’s not how good of a team you are, but how good you are at the right time. That’s why the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007 and why the 1980 Olympic Hockey team won gold.

Eli has been here before. He’s a quarterback entering the prime of his career, yet with Super Bowl experience under his belt. Will the Giants again hold up their Road Warrior mantra? Will Alex Smith lead the New York Knicks of football to a championship game (a team that’s usually so good but out of nowhere becomes terrible for ten years)?

Who knows… in five years, you may refer to Peyton as Eli’s older brother.

Jets/Giants, & why Tom Coughlin will be fired before my January 31st birthday

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The Jets and Giants will face off this Saturday in an essential Christmas Eve matchup

Ironically on the week Aaron Rodgers wins the AP Athlete of the Year, he loses a football game for the first time in a calendar year. If you picked that to happen on the same week the Colts win their first game, then hats off to you. I still don’t believe you, but hats off. The National Football League has now owned the third Male Athlete of the Year in the last five years (Drew Brees – 2010; Tom Brady -2007).

But if you picked  the forgotten NFC East team to manhandle the Gotham Giants, then I believe you. The Giants have had problems with playing down to their opponent’s level all season. In week 5, they lost to the then 1-3 Seattle Seahawks. In Week 13, they nearly handed the Packers their first loss of the season. The following week, they beat their division rival Dallas Cowboys on their own last second field goal.

As logic follows, they then get slaughtered by the now 5-9 Washington Redskins, at home, in a must-win situation. Since it’s against my morals to root for a Philadelphia based team, the Giants must beat the Jets and the Cowboys to make the playoffs.

Against my better judgement, I believe the Giants will do so. Mark Sanchez can’t throw the ball, which fits perfectly into the Giants’ “Everything but Secondary” defensive strategy. Eli Manning is the most underrated quarterback in the league, and the offense will be fine assuming his wide receivers can catch the ball.

Looking at passer rating alone, Mark Sanchez is 36th out of the 42 active quarterbacks listed on pro-footballrefernce.com. I still have no clue what passer rating is, but it’s omni-presently used in today’s stats-driven sports world, enough for me to safely assume it’s an accurate statistic.

The Giants defense will show up, and with that boost of confidence beat the Jets on Saturday. The Giants usually play well against the Cowboys, and will win a close one in the Meadowlands next week.

But…even if they make the playoffs, they’re not going anywhere. The Giants’ secondary has so many holes, they have zero running game, and assuming Eli Manning can’t put up 49 points, the Giants will get romped in the first round of the playoffs if they’re lucky enough to get there – which brings me to my central argument.

Tom Coughlin will not be the Giants’ coach next season. Remember, Coughlin was on the Hot Seat four years ago when his team started 0-2. Granted, they went on to win the Super Bowl, but it was because he changed his coaching style. Players complained Coughlin was too tough. For example, if you weren’t wearing the right socks on the team plane, you were reprimanded. Coughlin softened up, and it was just what the doctor ordered.

Skip forward to today, and he’s lost his team. It’s the same story every year – start strong, end lethargic. Under Coughlin, the Giants are 47-17 in the first half of the year, then boast a ghastly 25-37 record in the latter half. He’s also tied for the fifth longest tenured coach in the NFL. It’s been a nice run, but it’s time.

The Giants are so used to flunking late in the year it’s ingrained in their heads. “Okay, were down again…same story different week. This sucks.” They set themselves up for failure. They need a new attitude, new mindset, and with that will come a new head coach.

I turn 22 on January 31st. Preparing for the Super Bowl would be the ideal present, but a new face to my favorite football franchise will be a nice consolation prize.

Today will be the most interesting day of sports for a long time

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Today you saw a bench-clearing brawl, an unranked team beat a #1 on a game winning three, and #13 Kansas upset #2 Ohio State.

You will never see that combination of highs and lows in one day again in your lifetime.

Earlier today Cincinnati’s Yancy Gates threw a punch that left Xavier center Kenny Frease’s face looking like he belonged in the MMA octogon. Here’s the picture. He looks like this guy:

About five hours later, Indiana’s Christian Watford hits a three point buzzer beater to top #1 Kentucky by a point.

Swish.

A back and forth final minute featured multiple lead changes and the underdog emerging victorious. The crowd rushed the court so fast it looked like a rock concert. You literally couldn’t see any hardwood. That game alone would have illicit the “big day” label for college basketball.

And then a bench-clearing brawl on top of that?

Fortunately, bench-clearing brawls have become a rarity in sports today. Unfortunately, everyone loves them. A thrown punch in a basketball game is immediately a front-cover story.

Only something as crazy as an unranked team’s buzzer beater to knock off the top team in the country could compete for attention with a brawl, so I pose the question.

To top that off, the #2 team in the country lost as well – which, once again, would be the top story almost any other day.

To top that off, Ryan Braun, the MLB’s best National League player in 2011 will now forever be labeled a cheater.

All of this coming on the day college football announces its Heisman winner.

Listed above are five storylines that would lead the sports world on most days. Combined with all the NBA drama, Enjoy watching ESPN tomorrow. Today will be the most exciting day in sports for a long time.

Congratualtions to Tiger Woods

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I blogged a little while ago about how I wanted to see Tiger Woods win again. It had been over two years since his last win, and the sport certainly lost popularity. I’ll bet you didn’t know England’s Luke Donald won the most money on the PGA Tour in 2011. I didn’t. I just Wikipedia-ed it. I’ll bet you didn’t know Charl Schwartzel won the Masters in April. Not Charles…Charl.

It’s good to see Woods, in his traditional Sunday red, once again give that unmistakeable fist pump with the ear to ear gleam we were once so accustomed, and possibly, bored of.

Golf needed this win. Tiger needed this win. Woods has the invaluable ability to draw in the casual fan. That’s me. I’ll never really sit down and watch golf unless it’s the Sunday of a major championship or Tiger Woods is in the running…or if my dad calls me in to watch K.J. Choi’s awesome bunker shot or Jim Furyk’s swing, “Ugh…man he’s got the best swing in golf. Hey Cor- check this out.” At least twice a year I’ll hear that. He really does have a nice swing but I digress.

Yesterday, I found myself turning on the golf to see the leaderboard. If I’m tuning in just because of Tiger Woods, that means tens of thousands of others are too.

If golf wants to acquire the status of the unofficial fifth major sport in the United States, then Tiger Woods needs to start winning again.

Where are all the NBA fans???

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This is my first post since the NBA announced its return about a week ago. When I heard the news, I was ecstatic. Basketball doesn’t get too much love down here in South Jersey, but this season has more meaty story lines than any one in recent memory.

1) Will LeBron fail again? For one reason or another, everyone wants to see this man lose. It got the casual fan back into basketball last season.

LeBron James – The epitome of money can’t buy you happiness. ESPN’s Mike Wilbon said it best on the episode of PTI Wednesday. LeBron is a kid deep down. He’s thin skinned. He doesn’t gravitate to nor embrace the “villian” role. All LeBron wants is to be loved. That’s why him and Dwyane Wade were booed while throwing shirts into the stands at the Ohio State Buckeye game a couple days ago.

LeBron…stop trying to win back your hometown. It’s over. To Ohio residents that’s like Benedict Arnold handing out goodies at a July 4th party. No matter how much you beg, plead, and cry, your hometown will not forgive you until your career is long over – if you’re lucky. You need to learn how to embrace the villain role, and until you do, you’re living in denial.

2) Where will Chris Paul and Dwight Howard be one year from today?

This is a huge storyline coming into the season, but it’s not one we’ll have to deal with until the NBA trade deadline. Both players are under contract for one more year, and both want out. Chris Paul is part of a franchise that perennially fails to surround him with legitimate talent. The only reason why they’ve made the playoffs the last few seasons was because of Paul, not because of Emeka Okafor (bust) or Trevor Ariza. He’s very good friends with Carmelo Anthony, and they’re together way too much to not talk about forming a Big Three in the Big Apple. According to reports, Paul’s agent told a source his client will not sign an extension with the Hornets, and wants to be traded to New York.

I believe he ends up in NYC, whether at the trade deadline or free agency.

I used to think Dwight Howard was inevitably LA bound. He wants to play in a warm weather climate on a contender, but the Lakers won’t be so for much longer. The Lakers are old.

It seems the best option for Howard is Dallas. It would be Duncan and Robinson all over again. Sure Duncan and Nowitzki play two polarized games, but they’re both still 7’0″. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are in the last year of their contract, which grants the Mavericks the privilege of offering Howard close to a max deal.

3) Will the Knicks be contenders this year?

Okay so it’s not a national headline, but it’s mine! I’m more excited about the Knicks than any season since 6th grade. Finally, the Knicks have the pieces to make a serious push, but I’m still not convinced they could make it past the first or second round.

Offense wins games, but defense wins championships. Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni is the only coach in basketball that can coach a team to 130 points and still find a way to lose.  The Knicks could be up by 15 points in the fourth quarter, yet everyone in the Garden knew the game wasn’t over.

However, here’s three reasons why the Knicks defense will improve in 2011-12.

a) Atlanta Hawks former coach Mike Woodson.

The Knicks hired Woodson at the end of the 2011 season as a defensive specialist. Many credit Woodson as one of the best defensive coaches in the league

b) Chemistry

The new Knicks had no time to get to know each other when Carmelo Anthony was thrust into the starting lineup in March. The discontinuity on offense certainly bled into the defense. Now, the Knicks have had time to get to know each other’s games and personalities. While that won’t fix the problem, it will help it

*c) Chris Paul

I star it since it’s not a definite, but Chris Paul would be the most important of the Big Three. I’ll say it now – If the Knicks get Chris Paul, assuming everyone stays healthy, the Knicks will win a championship in the next four years. Paul is a defensive juggernaut, and a pass-first type of player. On a team where the two biggest players, Anthony and Stoudemire, work best with the ball in their hands, Paul is the opposite. This will lead to more continuity on offense, and more efficient play. Paul averaged 9.8 assists per game last season. The Knicks as a team averaged 21.4. This pairs up with my previous point, that consistency on offense leads to confidence and energy on defense.

Paul is also an elite defender…nothing else to add.

If you’re not a basketball fan, come join the party. With the lockout fixed, it shrinks the season giving more meaning to every game. Christmas Day the Knicks will face the Celtics. I’m smiling with excitement as I write this.

I can’t wait!

Can Tiger Woods finally turn it around? I hope so.

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Tiger Woods’ story is on track to be the saddest in sports history.

But yesterday, Tiger Woods beat Australian Aaron Baddeley to clinch the Presidents Cup for the Americans. I think it was a win Woods needed more than any of us can comprehend.

It was two years ago this Friday Woods’ altercation with then-wife Elin Nordegren became a de facto turning point in Woods’ golf career. A man once destined to surpass Jack Nicklaus for the all time record in major victories now sits winless since the Bush Administration.

In these two years, he’s gone through a new swing, a new caddie, a new marital status, two new knees, and zero wins.

While yesterday’s win was part of a team battle, it quenched a thirst for victory to which Woods used to be so accustomed. The smile he shared at the end of the tournament was refreshing. It gave a flashback to a gleam you thought you would never be deprived of.

I want to see Tiger Woods win – and as soon as possible. Once he went through a winless 2010, I said, “OK, he got what he deserved. Now lets get back to golf.”

But this losing streak has taken on a new life. Like a parasite, that Thanksgiving night sucked the game out of the most untouchable icon in sports, let alone golf. Imagine the Beatles releasing Sgt. Pepper, then never playing or releasing another song ever again.

Humans love to see famous people fail. It makes them feel better about themselves. That’s why Angelina Jolie’s zit can make a tabloid’s front cover or why Lindsay Lohan is still relevant.

But for me, Tiger Woods never winning again would be too much. Even though he makes more money in a year than you and I will see in our lifetimes, even though he can get any girl he wants, even though every decision he made was his own, he’s still a human being. Money doesn’t buy happiness. Like family, friends, a home, or a special hobby, Tiger Woods’ has a strong emotional attachment to golf. No amount of money can mask the pain felt by remaining unable to perform at a level so distant from what he once could.

I hope yesterday’s victory gives Tiger the confidence to push his game back to the elite level. The next time you see Tiger Woods, wearing his signature Sunday red, walking up the 18th with a lead, he will have the entire golf nation on his side. Then again, maybe I’m just a nice guy.

Going for it on 4th and inches in OT was the right decision

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I may be in the minority, but Falcons head coach Mike Smith made the better decision in overtime yesterday. For those of you who didn’t see, the Falcons went for it on 4th and inches in overtime against the Saints from their own 29. They failed to convert, and eventually lost when the Saints kicked a field goal off the turnover.

It didn’t work this time, but it was the right decision.

The Falcons are in the playoff race. They’re an above average football team, but not elite. To win the Super Bowl, you need to be one of two things: the best team, or a team that tricks themselves into thinking they are – the former example being the 2009 Saints and the latter the 2007 Giants.

The 4th and inches was an opportunity for Mike Smith to convey to his team, “We are an elite team. I have confidence in you. We can do this.”

More often than not, professional football teams will convert 4th and inches. For argument’s sake, I’d say 60% are converted. That number is not official, but the actual number is not under 50%. I’ll guarantee that.

In that case, theoretically the Falcons should pick up the first down. Simply by doing so, even if they still were to lose, shows the team what they could do under immense pressure when expected to make a play. Maybe they drive down the field and win the game. Maybe they proceed to go three and out and punt it away.

But the confidence the Falcons would have gained by converting and eventually winning would have outweighed the disappointment felt by yesterday’s outcome. Even if they convert and ultimately lose, the confidence boost is a mini-victory. If you want to win the Super Bowl and you’re not the best team in the league, you need to fill the void with confidence.

After the game, the unanimous reaction from the players was their coach made the right decision, but they needed to do a better job executing. They’re not lying for the cameras. Winning teams are relentless in aggression. Winning teams think they can do anything. The Falcons players are not going to keel over and feel they aren’t good enough to convert a 4th and inches –  at any time or at anywhere on the field. Their coach gave them a chance to prove it.

Let’s say the Falcons punt it away, and the Saints march right down the field and win the game. Now, Coach Smith feels like he didn’t even give his team a chance to prove themselves. You start to play the “what-if” game, and everyone reconsiders the punt.

You may be reading this saying, “Corey, you don’t go for it in overtime that deep in your own territory. It’s idiotic.” If that’s the case, think of the message it sends to the other 31 teams if you convert. It shows Coach Smith is crazy, and he may do anything at any time. It’s now a unique advantage the Falcons have over all other teams – the label of “crazy.”

The  overall pros of going for it in yesterday’s case outweigh the cons. Coach Smith made an educated gamble that unfortunately didn’t work. But if it had, the Falcons may have gone into week 11 6-3 atop the NFC South with the Titans, Vikings, and Texans upcoming. Three very winnable games could have put the Falcons at 9-3.

More importantly, it would have made them feel unstoppable.

I commend Mike Smith for his guts. He made the right coaching decision, and if given the opportunity, he should make the same one. Yesterday, his team let him down, not the other way around.

Calling all poker fans

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Right now I’m watching this great heads up battle between Martin Staszko and Pius Heinz. Chip leads have flip flopped back and forth multiple times. I believe both players have had a 2:1 chip count during this heads up battle (not official but it has been close).

A misconception about poker is it’s all about luck. I forgot where, but I once heard poker is 10% luck and 90% knowing how to play it.

I would consider myself an average poker player. I have a moderate knowledge of the game. If you want to compete with the professionals of the game, you need to analyze every player’s bodily movement, the timing of every bet, betting patters, mannerisms.

The best poker players share the minds of the best chess players. Both games measure your ability to foresee one step ahead of your opponent. As you get more skilled at seeing into the future you move up in the worldwide rankings.

What I’m watching right now is a match between two very good poker minds. You don’t beat over 6,000 people by accident, although with all the amateurs in the field I wouldn’t be as surprised.

I’ve seen stone cold bluff five-bet, I’ve seen great value bets paid off, I’ve seen pocket aces, pocket kings, and suited Big Slick.

All in an effort to win the $8+ million dollars grilling them no more than a yard away.

On a separate note, I give a lot of credit to Lon McHeren and Norman Chad. Live, Chad doesn’t sound like a side-show clown. It’s nice to see his personality. McHeren really knows a lot about the game. He’s been dead-on most of the time. I’d expect Antonio Esfandiari to be a little more than just another voice. His reads have been way off today. I believe it was a board of 5-5-J-A or something similar. Esfandiari said something like, “With this bet he’s representing either a five or a jack….he also may have the Ace….He could have a smaller pocket pair or he could simply be on a stone cold bluff.” He literally had listed every possibility.

I digress. Announcing poker for hours on end is not an easy job. I announce the Rowan football games, and you have to have a lot of information prepared because there’s a lot of down time in between plays. Announcing poker is as slow paced at announcing your Grandma Rose knit a sweater.

“Ooh… what color will she go with here Rich?”

“I don’t know Donnie, I’m thinking green or a teal complement. It would contrast brilliantly against the maroon.”

But the poker broadcast booth is good! It’s also nice that you see the whole cards. Personally, I would not like that if I was heads-up. In poker you never get to see most of your opponent’s hands. In this set up you can see all of them. On the highest scale in poker, I think it should remain as pure as the game always is.

But then again seeing whole cards brings ratings – and that’s what it’s all about.

PS…this battle is still going on! Turn on ESPN because this has been a great match-up.

Always stay until the end of the game….

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I must have been eight years old. My dad and I were at Yankee Stadium where the Yanks were facing the Baltimore Orioles. At the end of the eighth inning, with the Yankees down by two, he looked at me and asked, “Wanna go?” Beating the traffic is not a priority to an eight year old, and without hesitation I looked at him like he was crazy. He said, “OK nevermind.”

In the bottom of the ninth, Scott Brosius hit a three-run walk off home run.

Last night I was at the Rutgers/USF game with a couple buddies. It was freezing. Gary Nova was terrible and replaced late. Rutgers mustered up a total of three points to USF’s ten with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Everything was favoring the “The longer we stay, the more we suffer” notion. Once USF’s Demetrius Murray walked it in from four yards out, we all looked at each other, gave the head nod, and left.

It would’ve been nice to see a win at my first Rutgers game. Ehh… oh well.

Within one minute of passing the “No Re-entry sign” the crowd roars. Jakub’s iPhone told us Jeremy Deering returned it from 98 yards out. 17-10.  We laughed but still figured a win was a longshot. Later, Chas Dodd’s gorgeous pass to Brandon Coleman ties it.

The unanimous reaction was a combination of “F***” and “lol”

Skip ahead to :02 left in the fourth when USF is setting up for a 25 yard field goal. At this point we’re back at Jeff’s Rutgers house watching the game with about ten others. I was rooting for the home team, but was taking solace in the fact at least leaving early didn’t come back to bite us.

I can not remember the last time I have ever seen a <25 yard field goal miss – at any level.

Sure enough, the kick is blocked and the whole room collectively stands as one. Fists are up and hands are clapping, all while those who left are hurting a little inside.

Rutgers eventually comes back to win via San San Te’s right foot, and while overall I’m happy, I can’t believe I should’ve been there for it.

Sports fans – stay the entire game…no matter how much you’re down. If you leave, you had better be darn sure the game is over – and if not, then be prepared.

You may be leaving just as the game begins.